Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
25
Down 44%
$5.1K
$-3.5K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 25 top traders (44%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 46.3¢ | $943.39 | — | -$943.39 | 51% 1031-992 (2023) |
RL RLWG | Upavg 31.7¢ | $418.6 | $1.3K | +$901.4 | 67% 1639-791 (2430) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $673.24 | $1.2K | +$490.63 | 33% 157-318 (475) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 57.4¢ | $906.15 | — | -$906.15 | 54% 3659-3078 (6737) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 77.3¢ | $401.17 | — | -$343.22 | 57% 4268-3207 (7475) |
NO notfairplay | Upavg 18.5¢ | $150 | $811.11 | +$661.11 | 17% 5-24 (29) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 36.9¢ | $700.54 | — | -$700.54 | 45% 417-512 (929) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 36¢ | $398.99 | — | -$398.99 | 50% 3744-3775 (7519) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 56.2¢ | $325.53 | $579.72 | +$254.19 | 47% 481-538 (1019) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 47.5¢ | $377.54 | — | -$377.54 | 45% 523-652 (1175) |
AL almach | Upavg 30.9¢ | $204.16 | $417.52 | +$213.36 | 45% 514-636 (1150) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $170.13 | $339.1 | +$168.97 | 46% 799-931 (1730) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 82.9¢ | $225.64 | — | -$188.32 | 53% 923-832 (1755) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 49.3¢ | $123.63 | $150 | +$26.37 | 52% 3556-3327 (6883) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 77.5¢ | $153.01 | $125.51 | -$27.5 | 65% 1505-799 (2304) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $86.1 | $85 | +$27.25 | 44% 812-1016 (1828) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 24.7¢ | $14.59 | $59.04 | +$44.45 | 48% 825-881 (1706) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $63.61 | — | -$18.79 | 61% 1710-1077 (2787) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $39 | — | -$39 | 49% 3249-3358 (6607) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $39.2 | $44.2 | +$5 | 19% 172-725 (897) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $28.87 | $20.21 | -$8.66 | 60% 1047-698 (1745) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 38% 592-951 (1543) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $17.5 | $10 | +$10.5 | 58% 1632-1203 (2835) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $1.62 | $6.24 | +$4.62 | 74% 613-210 (823) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 75.8¢ | $2.4K | — | $-2.4K | 61% 2527-1640 (4167) |
Invested
$943.39
Value
—
PnL
-$943.39
Record
51%
1031-992 (2023)
Invested
$418.6
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$901.4
Record
67%
1639-791 (2430)
Invested
$673.24
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$490.63
Record
33%
157-318 (475)
Invested
$906.15
Value
—
PnL
-$906.15
Record
54%
3659-3078 (6737)
Invested
$401.17
Value
—
PnL
-$343.22
Record
57%
4268-3207 (7475)
Invested
$150
Value
$811.11
PnL
+$661.11
Record
17%
5-24 (29)
Invested
$700.54
Value
—
PnL
-$700.54
Record
45%
417-512 (929)
Invested
$398.99
Value
—
PnL
-$398.99
Record
50%
3744-3775 (7519)
Invested
$325.53
Value
$579.72
PnL
+$254.19
Record
47%
481-538 (1019)
Invested
$377.54
Value
—
PnL
-$377.54
Record
45%
523-652 (1175)
Invested
$204.16
Value
$417.52
PnL
+$213.36
Record
45%
514-636 (1150)
Invested
$170.13
Value
$339.1
PnL
+$168.97
Record
46%
799-931 (1730)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$225.64
Value
—
PnL
-$188.32
Record
53%
923-832 (1755)
Invested
$123.63
Value
$150
PnL
+$26.37
Record
52%
3556-3327 (6883)
Invested
$153.01
Value
$125.51
PnL
-$27.5
Record
65%
1505-799 (2304)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$86.1
Value
$85
PnL
+$27.25
Record
44%
812-1016 (1828)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.59
Value
$59.04
PnL
+$44.45
Record
48%
825-881 (1706)
Invested
$63.61
Value
—
PnL
-$18.79
Record
61%
1710-1077 (2787)
Invested
$39
Value
—
PnL
-$39
Record
49%
3249-3358 (6607)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$39.2
Value
$44.2
PnL
+$5
Record
19%
172-725 (897)
Invested
$28.87
Value
$20.21
PnL
-$8.66
Record
60%
1047-698 (1745)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
38%
592-951 (1543)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$10.5
Record
58%
1632-1203 (2835)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$1.62
Value
$6.24
PnL
+$4.62
Record
74%
613-210 (823)
Invested
$2,395
Value
—
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
61%
2527-1640 (4167)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
RLWG
Up — $1.3K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $1.2K
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
notfairplay
Up — $811.11
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
bosona
CTRDown — $0
PBot-5
Up — $579.72
mo-money
CTRDown — $0