Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 35%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$916.97
Smart Money Signal
8 of 23 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$141.08 | 50% 917-899 (1816) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 61.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$734.32 | 61% 2461-1569 (4030) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 33.9¢ | $220.7 | — | -$220.7 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $364.13 | $93.01 | -$271.12 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35¢ | $287.86 | — | -$287.86 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82¢ | $76.27 | $93.01 | +$16.74 | |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 37.2¢ | $350.27 | — | -$310.32 | 57% 4217-3173 (7390) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63¢ | $159.86 | $156.26 | +$1.34 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 35.6¢ | $187.75 | — | -$187.75 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $178.26 | — | -$178.26 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $71.46 | $85.92 | +$14.46 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $39.9 | $60 | +$20.1 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $46.15 | $55.7 | +$9.55 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $78.19 | — | -$78.19 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $46.8 | $25.6 | -$17.11 | 45% 744-919 (1663) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $36.02 | $20 | -$5.21 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $20.4 | — | -$20.4 | 47% 445-493 (938) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $8.58 | — | -$8.58 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.7¢ | $5.95 | — | -$5.95 | 68% 1630-781 (2411) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.6¢ | $25.88 | — | +$2.04 | 58% 1473-1061 (2534) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 60% 971-647 (1618) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR | Upavg 43.5¢ | $433 | — | -$433 | 32% 150-313 (463) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $36 | — | -$36 | 19% 91-398 (489) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $36.75 | — | -$36.75 | 44% 69-87 (156) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $7.33 | — | -$7.33 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
Invested
$2,208.49
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$141.08
Record
50%
917-899 (1816)
Invested
$1,179.67
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$734.32
Record
61%
2461-1569 (4030)
Invested
$220.7
Value
—
PnL
-$220.7
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$364.13
Value
$93.01
PnL
-$271.12
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Both legs:
Invested
$350.27
Value
—
PnL
-$310.32
Record
57%
4217-3173 (7390)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$159.86
Value
$156.26
PnL
+$1.34
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$187.75
Value
—
PnL
-$187.75
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$178.26
Value
—
PnL
-$178.26
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
ohioism<$100Invested
$71.46
Value
$85.92
PnL
+$14.46
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$60
PnL
+$20.1
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$46.15
Value
$55.7
PnL
+$9.55
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
Invested
$78.19
Value
—
PnL
-$78.19
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$46.8
Value
$25.6
PnL
-$17.11
Record
45%
744-919 (1663)
Invested
$36.02
Value
$20
PnL
-$5.21
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
Invested
$20.4
Value
—
PnL
-$20.4
Record
47%
445-493 (938)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$8.58
Value
—
PnL
-$8.58
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$5.95
Value
—
PnL
-$5.95
Record
68%
1630-781 (2411)
Invested
$25.88
Value
—
PnL
+$2.04
Record
58%
1473-1061 (2534)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
60%
971-647 (1618)
Invested
$433
Value
—
PnL
-$433
Record
32%
150-313 (463)
Invested
$36
Value
—
PnL
-$36
Record
19%
91-398 (489)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
—
PnL
-$36.75
Record
44%
69-87 (156)
Invested
$7.33
Value
—
PnL
-$7.33
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.1K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $1.9K
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $156.26
bosona
CTRUp — $0
almach
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $85.92
blue.birds
Down — $60