Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 41%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$749.38
Smart Money Signal
7 of 17 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $849.33 | $514.54 | -$334.79 | 51% 894-867 (1761) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.5¢ | $192.79 | $514.54 | +$321.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.3¢ | $656.54 | — | -$656.54 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $455.4 | $460 | +$4.6 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 62.4¢ | $339.85 | — | -$339.85 | 57% 4204-3155 (7359) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 38¢ | $82 | $215.79 | +$133.79 | 32% 146-312 (458) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 40.7¢ | $203.23 | — | -$203.23 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 41.3¢ | $316.04 | — | -$316.04 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 56.6¢ | $136.73 | $141.68 | +$4.96 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Downavg 38¢ | $38 | $100 | +$62 | 18% 83-387 (470) |
 ohioism | Downavg 70¢ | $100.83 | $64.8 | -$24.18 | 48% 718-774 (1492) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $68.78 | $57.12 | -$7.34 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $56.77 | — | -$56.77 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $83.39 | $54 | +$1.05 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $20.9 | $35.78 | +$14.88 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $19.35 | — | -$11.45 | 45% 712-884 (1596) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $10.82 | — | -$10.82 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $16.4 | $10 | -$6.4 | 60% 927-624 (1551) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $13.8 | — | +$1.53 | 58% 1420-1016 (2436) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $5 | +$3.9 | 62% 2398-1492 (3890) |
Invested
$849.33
Value
$514.54
PnL
-$334.79
Record
51%
894-867 (1761)
Both legs:
Invested
$455.4
Value
$460
PnL
+$4.6
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$339.85
Value
—
PnL
-$339.85
Record
57%
4204-3155 (7359)
Invested
$82
Value
$215.79
PnL
+$133.79
Record
32%
146-312 (458)
Invested
$203.23
Value
—
PnL
-$203.23
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Invested
$316.04
Value
—
PnL
-$316.04
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$136.73
Value
$141.68
PnL
+$4.96
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Invested
$38
Value
$100
PnL
+$62
Record
18%
83-387 (470)
ohioismInvested
$100.83
Value
$64.8
PnL
-$24.18
Record
48%
718-774 (1492)
Invested
$68.78
Value
$57.12
PnL
-$7.34
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
Invested
$56.77
Value
—
PnL
-$56.77
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$83.39
Value
$54
PnL
+$1.05
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Invested
$20.9
Value
$35.78
PnL
+$14.88
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$19.35
Value
—
PnL
-$11.45
Record
45%
712-884 (1596)
Invested
$10.82
Value
—
PnL
-$10.82
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$10
PnL
-$6.4
Record
60%
927-624 (1551)
Invested
$13.8
Value
—
PnL
+$1.53
Record
58%
1420-1016 (2436)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.9
Record
62%
2398-1492 (3890)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $460
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $215.79
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $141.68
ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG
Down — $100
ohioism
Down — $64.8
asdaefef
Down — $57.12