Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 73%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
-$583.96
Smart Money Signal
19 of 26 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$249.5 | 51% 894-867 (1761) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 54.9¢ | $598.96 | $600.11 | +$1.15 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $535.75 | $596.99 | +$99.91 | 32% 146-312 (458) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72¢ | $497.4 | $408.66 | -$88.74 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 48.4¢ | $333.06 | $359.42 | +$26.36 | 57% 4204-3155 (7359) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $315.49 | $318.73 | +$3.24 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Downavg 31.2¢ | $61.97 | $198.78 | +$136.81 | 18% 83-387 (470) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Upavg 47.2¢ | $179.3 | — | -$179.3 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 47.5¢ | $169.08 | — | -$169.08 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 72.7¢ | $144.06 | $139.26 | -$4.81 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $78.41 | $69 | -$8.97 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $56.63 | $64.99 | +$8.37 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.8¢ | $33.65 | $64.99 | +$31.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.8¢ | $22.98 | — | -$22.98 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $53.43 | $60 | +$6.57 | 48% 718-774 (1492) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $30 | $50 | +$20 | 45% 712-884 (1596) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $47.67 | $42.62 | -$4.78 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $41.83 | — | -$41.83 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $21.5 | $50 | +$28.5 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $20 | +$2.2 | 47% 423-477 (900) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $16.84 | — | -$16.84 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $16.81 | $14.71 | -$2.09 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $11.32 | — | -$11.32 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $11.88 | $9.47 | -$2.41 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $4.92 | $7.46 | +$2.54 | 39% 529-840 (1369) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $5.5 | $5.15 | -$0.35 | 60% 927-624 (1551) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 29.2¢ | $166.61 | — | -$136.91 | 62% 2398-1492 (3890) |
Invested
$1,500.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$249.5
Record
51%
894-867 (1761)
Invested
$598.96
Value
$600.11
PnL
+$1.15
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Invested
$535.75
Value
$596.99
PnL
+$99.91
Record
32%
146-312 (458)
Invested
$497.4
Value
$408.66
PnL
-$88.74
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$333.06
Value
$359.42
PnL
+$26.36
Record
57%
4204-3155 (7359)
Invested
$315.49
Value
$318.73
PnL
+$3.24
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$61.97
Value
$198.78
PnL
+$136.81
Record
18%
83-387 (470)
Invested
$179.3
Value
—
PnL
-$179.3
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$169.08
Value
—
PnL
-$169.08
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$144.06
Value
$139.26
PnL
-$4.81
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Invested
$78.41
Value
$69
PnL
-$8.97
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Invested
$56.63
Value
$64.99
PnL
+$8.37
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$53.43
Value
$60
PnL
+$6.57
Record
48%
718-774 (1492)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$30
Value
$50
PnL
+$20
Record
45%
712-884 (1596)
Invested
$47.67
Value
$42.62
PnL
-$4.78
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
Invested
$41.83
Value
—
PnL
-$41.83
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$28.5
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.2
Record
47%
423-477 (900)
Invested
$16.84
Value
—
PnL
-$16.84
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$16.81
Value
$14.71
PnL
-$2.09
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$11.32
Value
—
PnL
-$11.32
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$11.88
Value
$9.47
PnL
-$2.41
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$7.46
PnL
+$2.54
Record
39%
529-840 (1369)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.35
Record
60%
927-624 (1551)
Invested
$166.61
Value
—
PnL
-$136.91
Record
62%
2398-1492 (3890)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.2K
stepahead
Down — $600.11
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Down — $596.99
CrouchPredictions
Down — $408.66
Hcrystallash
Down — $359.42
hoodquant
Down — $318.73
ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG
Down — $198.78
38791873984189
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $139.26