Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,366

Combined PnL-$193.92

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,189

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 92.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$174.08	57% 4135-3098 (7233)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$33.81	52% 789-736 (1525)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.5¢	$878.91	$1.1K	+$212.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$246.74	—	-$246.74
KA KARIZMATIKU	Downavg 62.7¢	$374	$596.14	+$222.14	4% 5-132 (137)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$636.24	$642.67	+$6.43	98% 1235-27 (1262)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 89¢	$375.43	$231.87	-$139.33	46% 320-374 (694)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.9¢	$380.42	—	-$380.42	44% 595-762 (1357)
AL almach	Downavg 99.9¢	$342.18	$197.82	-$144.36	43% 374-503 (877)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 41.6¢	$142.24	$100	-$42.24	54% 3536-2962 (6498)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$51.5	$100	+$48.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$90.74	—	-$90.74
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$96.22	$105.15	+$8.93	53% 728-635 (1363)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$58.58	$105.15	+$46.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.3¢	$37.64	—	-$37.64
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 46.2¢	$137.25	—	-$137.25	42% 378-516 (894)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$54.61	$50.69	-$3.43	65% 1142-605 (1747)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 93¢	$46.5	$50	+$3.5	49% 2975-3069 (6044)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$34.95	$55	+$20.05	48% 352-387 (739)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$55.6	—	-$55.6	44% 594-770 (1364)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$18.41	$21.34	+$3.14	59% 788-556 (1344)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$37.5	—	-$37.5	43% 57-77 (134)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$59.18	$22.15	+$12.03	61% 1274-816 (2090)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$25.88	—	-$25.88	53% 335-299 (634)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 44.4¢	$368.18	—	-$368.18	50% 3604-3646 (7250)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 33.7¢	$16.01	—	-$16.01	52% 3288-3043 (6331)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$4.7	—	-$4.7	58% 1179-851 (2030)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$2.35	—	-$2.35	62% 2322-1419 (3741)