Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$51.73

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares11,100

Combined PnL+$966.47

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,272

Combined PnL-$914.74

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 63.7¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$522.11	57% 72544-55201 (127745)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 85.2¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$17.48	54% 15487-13374 (28861)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$87.56	56% 15085-11833 (26918)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 80.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$68.89	57% 10517-7885 (18402)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 75.7¢	$537.45	$598.11	+$60.65	60% 7816-5265 (13081)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 88.1¢	$434.97	$440	+$5.03	48% 4685-5102 (9787)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$429.54	$424.66	-$4.88	54% 46586-38972 (85558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.5¢	$358.83	$424.66	+$65.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.1¢	$70.71	—	-$70.71
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$307.15	$313	+$5.85	93% 24866-1838 (26704)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 67.6¢	$208.56	$284.99	+$76.42	58% 61491-44895 (106386)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 58.6¢	$170.77	$213.09	+$42.31	29% 11004-26846 (37850)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 72.7¢	$185.38	$195	+$9.62	57% 6824-5059 (11883)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 66.1¢	$116.22	$175.74	+$59.52	56% 59008-45580 (104588)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48¢	$138.34	—	-$138.34	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
gabigol	Upavg 84¢	$133.86	$159.4	+$25.54	46% 7237-8594 (15831)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 51.4¢	$102.75	—	-$102.75	35% 19300-36356 (55656)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 82.2¢	$105.62	$89.15	-$11.27	50% 37381-37254 (74635)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 33.9¢	$245.75	—	-$245.75	55% 51158-41686 (92844)
FA FatSlagARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$77.83	$107.74	+$29.91	49% 10269-10780 (21049)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$52.83	$107.74	+$54.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$25	—	-$25
ohioism<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$63.36	$70	+$6.64	63% 40974-23588 (64562)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$68.12	$64.79	-$3.33	51% 10167-9750 (19917)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 81.2¢	$53.4	$65.73	+$12.33	55% 18917-15496 (34413)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 23.9¢	$156.19	—	-$156.19	55% 49094-40582 (89676)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$52.01	$51.88	+$9.51	64% 25897-14422 (40319)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$38.3	$37.21	-$1.09	61% 96578-60871 (157449)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$24.6	$33.79	+$9.19	52% 11388-10352 (21740)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,127.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$522.11

Record

57%

72544-55201 (127745)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$2,239.23

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$17.48

Record

54%

15487-13374 (28861)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$2,045.91

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$87.56

Record

56%

15085-11833 (26918)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$1,175.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$68.89

Record

57%

10517-7885 (18402)

1000monkeys

Invested

$537.45

Value

$598.11

PnL

+$60.65

Record

60%

7816-5265 (13081)

asdcaxz

Invested

$434.97

Value

$440

PnL

+$5.03

Record

48%

4685-5102 (9787)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$429.54

Value

$424.66

PnL

-$4.88

Record

54%

46586-38972 (85558)

Both legs:

Up$358.8384.5¢+$65.83

Down$70.7120.1¢-$70.71

hoodquant

Invested

$307.15

Value

$313

PnL

+$5.85

Record

93%

24866-1838 (26704)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$208.56

Value

$284.99

PnL

+$76.42

Record

58%

61491-44895 (106386)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$170.77

Value

$213.09

PnL

+$42.31

Record

29%

11004-26846 (37850)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$185.38

Value

$195

PnL

+$9.62

Record

57%

6824-5059 (11883)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$116.22

Value

$175.74

PnL

+$59.52

Record

56%

59008-45580 (104588)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$138.34

Value

—

PnL

-$138.34

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

gabigol

Invested

$133.86

Value

$159.4

PnL

+$25.54

Record

46%

7237-8594 (15831)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$102.75

Value

—

PnL

-$102.75

Record

35%

19300-36356 (55656)

Alpharo28

Invested

$105.62

Value

$89.15

PnL

-$11.27

Record

50%

37381-37254 (74635)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$245.75

Value

—

PnL

-$245.75

Record

55%

51158-41686 (92844)

FatSlagARB<$100

Invested

$77.83

Value

$107.74

PnL

+$29.91

Record

49%

10269-10780 (21049)

Both legs:

Up$52.8349¢+$54.91

Down$2548¢-$25

ohioism<$100

Invested

$63.36

Value

$70

PnL

+$6.64

Record

63%

40974-23588 (64562)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$68.12

Value

$64.79

PnL

-$3.33

Record

51%

10167-9750 (19917)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$65.73

PnL

+$12.33

Record

55%

18917-15496 (34413)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$156.19

Value

—

PnL

-$156.19

Record

55%

49094-40582 (89676)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$52.01

Value

$51.88

PnL

+$9.51

Record

64%

25897-14422 (40319)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$38.3

Value

$37.21

PnL

-$1.09

Record

61%

96578-60871 (157449)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$33.79

PnL

+$9.19

Record

52%

11388-10352 (21740)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa12460ca...a63b98

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793629800

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Up — $2.6K

+$522.11

aswfadq1555

Up — $2.2K

-$17.48

CrouchPredictions

Up — $2.1K

+$87.56

trdyugiolkw

Up — $1.2K

+$68.89

1000monkeys

Up — $598.11

+$60.65

asdcaxz

Up — $440

+$5.03

MayorMamdani

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.88

hoodquant

Up — $313

+$5.85

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $284.99

+$76.42

Hcrystallash

Up — $213.09

+$42.31

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