Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 55%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$555.02
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$22.52 | 93% 24866-1838 (26704) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 55.6¢ | $857.05 | $909.1 | +$52.05 | 57% 10517-7885 (18402) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 56.4¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 56% 15085-11833 (26918) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 60¢ | $455.13 | $631.46 | +$176.33 | 57% 72544-55201 (127745) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $302.21 | — | -$302.21 | 60% 7816-5265 (13081) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 45¢ | $260.01 | $291.75 | +$31.74 | 48% 4685-5102 (9787) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 33.8¢ | $130.48 | $277.24 | +$146.76 | 50% 8062-8069 (16131) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 48¢ | $192 | $400 | +$208 | 52% 11388-10352 (21740) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $281.86 | $204.89 | -$76.97 | 29% 11004-26846 (37850) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $106.55 | $204.89 | +$98.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $175.32 | — | -$175.32 | |
FA FatSlag | Downavg 48.6¢ | $152.64 | $313.8 | +$161.16 | 49% 10269-10780 (21049) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 48¢ | $122.88 | $256 | +$133.12 | 35% 19300-36356 (55656) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $123.16 | $156.15 | +$32.99 | 54% 15487-13374 (28861) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Upavg 65.5¢ | $116.35 | — | -$116.35 | 57% 6824-5059 (11883) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $71.96 | $85.54 | +$13.58 | 51% 10167-9750 (19917) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $75.05 | $67.86 | -$7.19 | 65% 127125-67915 (195040) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $59.26 | $56.77 | -$2.49 | 66% 127863-65778 (193641) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.2¢ | $66.9 | — | -$66.64 | 64% 25897-14422 (40319) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $36 | $75 | +$39 | 57% 12804-9525 (22329) |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Upavg 76.6¢ | $119.73 | — | -$104.53 | 50% 37381-37254 (74635) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $19.7 | $40 | +$20.3 | 58% 51506-37568 (89074) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $10.85 | $38.75 | +$27.9 | 64% 4491-2494 (6985) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $34.7 | — | -$34.7 | 44% 694-891 (1585) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $12.9 | $25 | +$12.1 | 54% 46586-38972 (85558) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $15.61 | — | -$15.61 | 58% 61491-44895 (106386) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $5.5 | $18.97 | +$13.47 | 68% 1753-837 (2590) |
Invested
$1,468.48
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$22.52
Record
93%
24866-1838 (26704)
Invested
$857.05
Value
$909.1
PnL
+$52.05
Record
57%
10517-7885 (18402)
Invested
$1,002.37
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
56%
15085-11833 (26918)
Invested
$455.13
Value
$631.46
PnL
+$176.33
Record
57%
72544-55201 (127745)
Invested
$302.21
Value
—
PnL
-$302.21
Record
60%
7816-5265 (13081)
Invested
$260.01
Value
$291.75
PnL
+$31.74
Record
48%
4685-5102 (9787)
Invested
$130.48
Value
$277.24
PnL
+$146.76
Record
50%
8062-8069 (16131)
Invested
$192
Value
$400
PnL
+$208
Record
52%
11388-10352 (21740)
Invested
$281.86
Value
$204.89
PnL
-$76.97
Record
29%
11004-26846 (37850)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.64
Value
$313.8
PnL
+$161.16
Record
49%
10269-10780 (21049)
Invested
$122.88
Value
$256
PnL
+$133.12
Record
35%
19300-36356 (55656)
Invested
$123.16
Value
$156.15
PnL
+$32.99
Record
54%
15487-13374 (28861)
Invested
$116.35
Value
—
PnL
-$116.35
Record
57%
6824-5059 (11883)
Invested
$71.96
Value
$85.54
PnL
+$13.58
Record
51%
10167-9750 (19917)
Invested
$75.05
Value
$67.86
PnL
-$7.19
Record
65%
127125-67915 (195040)
Invested
$59.26
Value
$56.77
PnL
-$2.49
Record
66%
127863-65778 (193641)
Invested
$66.9
Value
—
PnL
-$66.64
Record
64%
25897-14422 (40319)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$36
Value
$75
PnL
+$39
Record
57%
12804-9525 (22329)
Invested
$119.73
Value
—
PnL
-$104.53
Record
50%
37381-37254 (74635)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$40
PnL
+$20.3
Record
58%
51506-37568 (89074)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$10.85
Value
$38.75
PnL
+$27.9
Record
64%
4491-2494 (6985)
Invested
$34.7
Value
—
PnL
-$34.7
Record
44%
694-891 (1585)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$25
PnL
+$12.1
Record
54%
46586-38972 (85558)
Invested
$15.61
Value
—
PnL
-$15.61
Record
58%
61491-44895 (106386)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$13.47
Record
68%
1753-837 (2590)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $909.1
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $631.46
1000monkeys
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $291.75
RLWG
Down — $277.24
PBot-5
Down — $400
Hcrystallash
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FatSlag
Down — $313.8