Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$715.99

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,528

Combined PnL+$798.96

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$82.97

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 66.9¢	$577.31	$833.74	+$256.43	67% 100201-48634 (148835)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 70.2¢	$327.9	$392.09	+$64.19	26% 8815-24906 (33721)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 88¢	$264	$300	+$36	48% 23559-25849 (49408)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 73.6¢	$246.45	$279.43	+$32.98	54% 15451-13344 (28795)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 76.1¢	$250.4	$241.84	-$8.56	61% 7761-5060 (12821)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$184.24	$188	+$3.76	93% 24712-1827 (26539)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 68.3¢	$127.87	$141.79	+$13.91	57% 6807-5045 (11852)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.7¢	$112.21	$216.99	+$104.79	58% 38706-27758 (66464)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 63¢	$128.59	$204.11	+$75.52	57% 72361-55060 (127421)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 63.9¢	$90.77	$139.96	+$49.19	50% 37282-36733 (74015)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 72.7¢	$95.18	$131	+$35.82	54% 46462-38844 (85306)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$81.09	$165.48	+$84.39	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 87¢	$79.21	$63.92	-$15.29	47% 1881-2131 (4012)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$42.83	$63.77	+$20.94	56% 11274-8984 (20258)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 43.9¢	$54.98	$30	-$24.98	53% 4711-4105 (8816)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$32.48	—	-$32.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$22.5	$30	+$7.5
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 54¢	$27	$50	+$23	65% 126838-67771 (194609)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 53¢	$29.2	$30.2	+$1	63% 40871-23500 (64371)
FA FatSlagCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$22	—	-$22	49% 9448-9942 (19390)
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100	Upavg 32.8¢	$18.73	—	-$18.73	44% 681-883 (1564)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$19.48	$26.85	+$7.37	66% 127563-65613 (193176)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$15.95	—	-$15.95	50% 8041-8057 (16098)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$11.55	$16.03	+$4.48	61% 96362-60751 (157113)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 63¢	$6.18	$6	-$0.18	52% 91694-86058 (177752)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 70.6¢	$6.3	$8.92	+$2.62	62% 44500-27446 (71946)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 52¢	$5.2	$10	+$4.8	56% 58856-45465 (104321)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$577.31

Value

$833.74

PnL

+$256.43

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$327.9

Value

$392.09

PnL

+$64.19

Record

26%

8815-24906 (33721)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$264

Value

$300

PnL

+$36

Record

48%

23559-25849 (49408)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$246.45

Value

$279.43

PnL

+$32.98

Record

54%

15451-13344 (28795)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$250.4

Value

$241.84

PnL

-$8.56

Record

61%

7761-5060 (12821)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$184.24

Value

$188

PnL

+$3.76

Record

93%

24712-1827 (26539)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$127.87

Value

$141.79

PnL

+$13.91

Record

57%

6807-5045 (11852)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$112.21

Value

$216.99

PnL

+$104.79

Record

58%

38706-27758 (66464)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$128.59

Value

$204.11

PnL

+$75.52

Record

57%

72361-55060 (127421)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$90.77

Value

$139.96

PnL

+$49.19

Record

50%

37282-36733 (74015)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$95.18

Value

$131

PnL

+$35.82

Record

54%

46462-38844 (85306)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$81.09

Value

$165.48

PnL

+$84.39

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$79.21

Value

$63.92

PnL

-$15.29

Record

47%

1881-2131 (4012)

flippingsharks<$100

Down

Invested

$42.83

Value

$63.77

PnL

+$20.94

Record

56%

11274-8984 (20258)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$54.98

Value

$30

PnL

-$24.98

Record

53%

4711-4105 (8816)

Both legs:

Invested

$27

Value

$50

PnL

+$23

Record

65%

126838-67771 (194609)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$29.2

Value

$30.2

PnL

+$1

Record

63%

40871-23500 (64371)

FatSlagCTR<$100

Invested

$22

Value

—

PnL

-$22

Record

49%

9448-9942 (19390)

GoodRecipientCTR<$100

Invested

$18.73

Value

—

PnL

-$18.73

Record

44%

681-883 (1564)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$19.48

Value

$26.85

PnL

+$7.37

Record

66%

127563-65613 (193176)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$15.95

Value

—

PnL

-$15.95

Record

50%

8041-8057 (16098)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$11.55

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$4.48

Record

61%

96362-60751 (157113)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$6.18

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

91694-86058 (177752)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.3

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$2.62

Record

62%

44500-27446 (71946)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$5.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.8

Record

56%

58856-45465 (104321)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9a00c4b7...a4b16f

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793604600

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $833.74

+$256.43

Hcrystallash

Down — $392.09

+$64.19

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $300

+$36

aswfadq1555

Down — $279.43

+$32.98

1000monkeys

Down — $241.84

-$8.56

hoodquant

Down — $188

+$3.76

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $141.79

+$13.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $216.99

+$104.79

uninformedfloww

Down — $204.11

+$75.52

Alpharo28

Down — $139.96

+$49.19

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