Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
33
Up 59%
3 arb excluded
$9.5K
$-3.8K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWG | Downavg 38.4¢ | $2.9K | $7.5K | +$4.6K | 50% 8041-8057 (16098) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 52.5¢ | $3.5K | — | $-3.5K | 67% 100201-48634 (148835) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 61.7¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 56% 15023-11796 (26819) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 66.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 54% 15451-13344 (28795) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Upavg 47.8¢ | $724.21 | — | -$724.21 | 61% 7761-5060 (12821) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 68.3¢ | $645.94 | — | -$645.94 | 57% 72361-55060 (127421) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 51.4¢ | $475.1 | — | -$475.1 | 47% 1881-2131 (4012) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $492.84 | $500 | +$7.16 | 93% 24712-1827 (26539) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $349.57 | $353.39 | +$3.82 | 54% 11432-9726 (21158) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.4¢ | $178.09 | — | -$178.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.5¢ | $171.48 | $353.39 | +$181.91 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 54¢ | $333.82 | $321.51 | -$12.3 | 57% 6807-5045 (11852) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Upavg 83¢ | $249 | — | -$249 | 48% 23559-25849 (49408) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $127.65 | $132.58 | +$4.93 | 26% 8815-24906 (33721) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.3¢ | $36.17 | $132.58 | +$96.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.5¢ | $91.48 | — | -$91.48 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98¢ | $129.36 | $132 | +$2.64 | 58% 38706-27758 (66464) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 51.8¢ | $102.32 | $116.64 | +$14.33 | 53% 4711-4105 (8816) |
 ohioism | Downavg 30.8¢ | $53.4 | $127 | +$73.6 | 63% 40871-23500 (64371) |
GO GoodRecipientARB<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $98.8 | $68.84 | -$29.96 | 44% 681-883 (1564) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.2¢ | $71.74 | — | -$71.74 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $27.06 | $68.84 | +$41.78 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $73.55 | $70 | -$3.55 | 66% 127563-65613 (193176) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97.4¢ | $57.85 | $55.34 | -$2.51 | 65% 126838-67771 (194609) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 34.9¢ | $85.41 | $77.29 | +$24.53 | 50% 37282-36733 (74015) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $64.99 | — | -$64.99 | 73% 95129-35787 (130916) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $33.77 | — | -$33.77 | 58% 61328-44778 (106106) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 79.5¢ | $42.93 | — | -$42.93 | 54% 46462-38844 (85306) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $60.99 | — | -$60.99 | 62% 44500-27446 (71946) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $33.46 | — | -$33.46 | 56% 58856-45465 (104321) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $31.91 | — | -$31.91 | 64% 4441-2454 (6895) |
Invested
$2,859.28
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$4.6K
Record
50%
8041-8057 (16098)
Invested
$3,470.84
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
67%
100201-48634 (148835)
Invested
$1,491.65
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
56%
15023-11796 (26819)
Invested
$1,127.48
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
54%
15451-13344 (28795)
Invested
$724.21
Value
—
PnL
-$724.21
Record
61%
7761-5060 (12821)
Invested
$645.94
Value
—
PnL
-$645.94
Record
57%
72361-55060 (127421)
Invested
$475.1
Value
—
PnL
-$475.1
Record
47%
1881-2131 (4012)
Invested
$492.84
Value
$500
PnL
+$7.16
Record
93%
24712-1827 (26539)
Invested
$349.57
Value
$353.39
PnL
+$3.82
Record
54%
11432-9726 (21158)
Both legs:
Invested
$333.82
Value
$321.51
PnL
-$12.3
Record
57%
6807-5045 (11852)
Invested
$249
Value
—
PnL
-$249
Record
48%
23559-25849 (49408)
Invested
$127.65
Value
$132.58
PnL
+$4.93
Record
26%
8815-24906 (33721)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.36
Value
$132
PnL
+$2.64
Record
58%
38706-27758 (66464)
Invested
$102.32
Value
$116.64
PnL
+$14.33
Record
53%
4711-4105 (8816)
ohioismInvested
$53.4
Value
$127
PnL
+$73.6
Record
63%
40871-23500 (64371)
Invested
$98.8
Value
$68.84
PnL
-$29.96
Record
44%
681-883 (1564)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.55
Value
$70
PnL
-$3.55
Record
66%
127563-65613 (193176)
Invested
$57.85
Value
$55.34
PnL
-$2.51
Record
65%
126838-67771 (194609)
Invested
$85.41
Value
$77.29
PnL
+$24.53
Record
50%
37282-36733 (74015)
Invested
$64.99
Value
—
PnL
-$64.99
Record
73%
95129-35787 (130916)
Invested
$33.77
Value
—
PnL
-$33.77
Record
58%
61328-44778 (106106)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$42.93
Value
—
PnL
-$42.93
Record
54%
46462-38844 (85306)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$60.99
Value
—
PnL
-$60.99
Record
62%
44500-27446 (71946)
Invested
$33.46
Value
—
PnL
-$33.46
Record
56%
58856-45465 (104321)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$31.91
Value
—
PnL
-$31.91
Record
64%
4441-2454 (6895)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
Down — $7.5K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
1000monkeys
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $500
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $321.51