Will Goiás EC win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 61¢ · $909 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$908.52
$21.61
55.9¢ → 60.5¢
+8% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+26 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $366.56 | $371.1 | +$4.54 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.8¢ | $226.4 | $248.8 | +$22.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.1¢ | $140.16 | $122.3 | -$17.86 | |
VE Venusian | Noavg 58.7¢ | $217.06 | $220.19 | +$3.13 | 36% 945-1666 (2611) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $87.83 | $89.37 | +$1.54 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
GU guilttrip<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $58.58 | $77.22 | +$18.64 | 42% 18-25 (43) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $63.23 | $63.23 | -$0 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $47.16 | $46.75 | -$0.41 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $17.43 | $17.43 | +$0 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $16.48 | $14.13 | -$2.35 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $7.74 | $8.8 | +$1.06 | 32% 99-206 (305) |
Invested
$366.56
Value
$371.1
PnL
+$4.54
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Both legs:
Invested
$217.06
Value
$220.19
PnL
+$3.13
Record
36%
945-1666 (2611)
Invested
$87.83
Value
$89.37
PnL
+$1.54
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$58.58
Value
$77.22
PnL
+$18.64
Record
42%
18-25 (43)
Invested
$63.23
Value
$63.23
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$47.16
Value
$46.75
PnL
-$0.41
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$17.43
Value
$17.43
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
Invested
$16.48
Value
$14.13
PnL
-$2.35
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$1.06
Record
32%
99-206 (305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.