Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AA Ponte Preta vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $446 held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$445.51

Combined PnL

$90.49

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$444.79

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$268.89

Over3 traders

Total Value$0.72

Total Shares365

Combined PnL-$178.4

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 28.5¢	$69.59	$243.96	+$174.38	35% 622-1179 (1801)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 69¢	$83.01	$120.26	+$37.25	62% 246-150 (396)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 27¢	$16.35	$54.5	+$38.15	34% 610-1204 (1814)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 26¢	$5.2	$19.99	+$14.79	33% 593-1215 (1808)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.76	$6.08	+$4.32	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 72¢	$4.86	$0.54	-$4.32	54% 217-187 (404)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$168.56	$0.17	-$168.39	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$5.7	$0.01	-$5.69	48% 621-673 (1294)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$69.59

Value

$243.96

PnL

+$174.38

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$83.01

Value

$120.26

PnL

+$37.25

Record

62%

246-150 (396)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$16.35

Value

$54.5

PnL

+$38.15

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$14.79

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$1.76

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$4.32

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.86

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$4.32

Record

54%

217-187 (404)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$168.56

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$168.39

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.7

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.69

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.