Exact Score: AA Ponte Preta 1 - 0 Operário Ferroviário EC?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 100¢ · $291 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$291.05
-$16.32
90.8¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-54 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WagerWizard | Noavg 89¢ | $120.27 | $135.08 | +$14.81 | 20% 47-184 (231) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $8.62 | $74.81 | +$66.19 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $77.32 | $56.6 | -$20.72 | 47% 564-628 (1192) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $25.67 | $24.02 | -$1.65 | 34% 639-1259 (1898) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $29.89 | $0.25 | -$29.64 | 35% 657-1232 (1889) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $31.26 | $0.18 | -$31.08 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $8.23 | $0.07 | -$8.16 | 33% 629-1267 (1896) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $6.12 | $0.05 | -$6.06 | 36% 269-473 (742) |
Invested
$120.27
Value
$135.08
PnL
+$14.81
Record
20%
47-184 (231)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.62
Value
$74.81
PnL
+$66.19
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
Invested
$77.32
Value
$56.6
PnL
-$20.72
Record
47%
564-628 (1192)
Invested
$25.67
Value
$24.02
PnL
-$1.65
Record
34%
639-1259 (1898)
Invested
$29.89
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$29.64
Record
35%
657-1232 (1889)
Invested
$31.26
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$31.08
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$8.23
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$8.16
Record
33%
629-1267 (1896)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$6.06
Record
36%
269-473 (742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.