Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

EC Juventude vs. Botafogo FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $870 held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$869.98

Combined PnL

$91.2

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$239.06

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$52.47

Under4 traders

Total Value$159.32

Total Shares277

Combined PnL+$38.72

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 52.5¢	$455.18	$471.61	+$16.43	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.5¢	$316.25	$334.15	+$17.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$138.93	$137.46	-$1.47
RN1CTR	Overavg 46¢	$60.96	$106.8	+$45.84	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 38¢	$37.12	$93.35	+$56.22	36% 979-1704 (2683)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$49.43	$60.39	+$10.96	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 69¢	$30	$43.46	+$13.46	64% 313-173 (486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 37.7¢	$50.69	$35.49	-$15.2	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$20.4	$29.7	+$9.3	64% 628-348 (976)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 38¢	$49.67	$20.91	-$28.76	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.2	+$0.8	55% 502-403 (905)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.48	+$0.78	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 38¢	$3.8	$1.6	-$2.2	48% 2164-2307 (4471)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$455.18

Value

$471.61

PnL

+$16.43

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Both legs:

Under$316.2552.5¢+$17.9

Over$138.9345¢-$1.47

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$60.96

Value

$106.8

PnL

+$45.84

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$37.12

Value

$93.35

PnL

+$56.22

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.43

Value

$60.39

PnL

+$10.96

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$43.46

PnL

+$13.46

Record

64%

313-173 (486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.69

Value

$35.49

PnL

-$15.2

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.4

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$9.3

Record

64%

628-348 (976)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$49.67

Value

$20.91

PnL

-$28.76

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.78

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.8

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$2.2

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.