Will CR Brasil win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$370.8

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 64¢

+29% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,487

Combined PnL+$370.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$170.2

Total Shares289

Combined PnL+$0.37

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 60¢	$508.06	$503.89	-$4.17	36% 979-1704 (2683)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 40.2¢	$315.64	$455.4	+$139.76	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
VE Venusian	Noavg 52.7¢	$254.87	$299.59	+$44.72	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 42.9¢	$168.93	$250.04	+$81.11	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 34.2¢	$111.82	$199.5	+$87.68	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
RN1	Noavg 61¢	$141.3	$149.32	+$8.02	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 59¢	$143.9	$146.34	+$2.44	36% 481-851 (1332)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 36¢	$74.16	$91.07	+$16.91	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$48.3	$50.98	+$2.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$25.86	$40.09	+$14.23
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$90.45	$85.17	-$5.28	55% 502-403 (905)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$67.29	$78.86	+$11.57	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 38.9¢	$72.27	$70.57	-$1.7	41% 147-210 (357)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 65.8¢	$44.01	$41.48	-$2.52	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$14.31	$22.76	+$8.44	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$21.06	$20.79	-$0.27	47% 993-1122 (2115)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 58¢	$8.29	$8.14	-$0.14	47% 936-1037 (1973)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 31.9¢	$6.45	$7.68	+$1.23	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$2.9	-$0.1	44% 386-482 (868)

Limousin

Invested

$508.06

Value

$503.89

PnL

-$4.17

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$315.64

Value

$455.4

PnL

+$139.76

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Venusian

Invested

$254.87

Value

$299.59

PnL

+$44.72

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

LightParadox

Invested

$168.93

Value

$250.04

PnL

+$81.11

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

Flaznorp

Invested

$111.82

Value

$199.5

PnL

+$87.68

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

RN1

Invested

$141.3

Value

$149.32

PnL

+$8.02

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$143.9

Value

$146.34

PnL

+$2.44

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$74.16

Value

$91.07

PnL

+$16.91

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Both legs:

Invested

$90.45

Value

$85.17

PnL

-$5.28

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$67.29

Value

$78.86

PnL

+$11.57

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$72.27

Value

$70.57

PnL

-$1.7

Record

41%

147-210 (357)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.01

Value

$41.48

PnL

-$2.52

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.31

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$8.44

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.06

Value

$20.79

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$8.29

Value

$8.14

PnL

-$0.14

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$1.23

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

386-482 (868)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.