Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$578.47

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 100¢

+140% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,272

Combined PnL+$597.75

Over6 traders

Total Value$734.53

Total Shares2,135

Combined PnL-$19.28

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Underavg 38.7¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$548.48	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
RN1CTR	Overavg 40.4¢	$305.34	$377.68	+$72.33	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 83.4¢	$165.59	$184.59	+$18.99	65% 324-176 (500)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 70¢	$151.66	$147.33	-$4.33	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 34.3¢	$111.04	$141.57	+$30.53	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
dips.	Underavg 88.1¢	$104.06	$109	+$12.69	47% 1028-1153 (2181)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$51.1	$49.64	-$1.46	55% 532-434 (966)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 29¢	$12.45	$21.47	+$9.02	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
SM smithagent	Underavg 89¢	$264.36	$21.1	+$7.79	45% 707-867 (1574)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 31.5¢	$87.52	$18.04	-$69.48	36% 513-930 (1443)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 47¢	$8.81	$9.37	+$0.56	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.94	$3.47	+$1.53	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 76¢	$3.8	$2.5	-$1.3	83% 792-160 (952)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 8.3¢	$47.15	$0.28	-$46.87	38% 1068-1766 (2834)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,887.07

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$548.48

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$305.34

Value

$377.68

PnL

+$72.33

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$165.59

Value

$184.59

PnL

+$18.99

Record

65%

324-176 (500)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$151.66

Value

$147.33

PnL

-$4.33

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$111.04

Value

$141.57

PnL

+$30.53

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

dips.

Under

Invested

$104.06

Value

$109

PnL

+$12.69

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.1

Value

$49.64

PnL

-$1.46

Record

55%

532-434 (966)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$12.45

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$9.02

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

smithagent

Under

Invested

$264.36

Value

$21.1

PnL

+$7.79

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.52

Value

$18.04

PnL

-$69.48

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$0.56

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$1.94

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$1.53

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$3.8

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.3

Record

83%

792-160 (952)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.15

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$46.87

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.