Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CR Flamengo, while the market favors Grêmio FBPA (53%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold CR Flamengo (73%) · CR Flamengo at 47¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 4

CR Flamengo47¢Grêmio FBPA53¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CR Flamengo

Consensus Traders

CR Flamengo 73%

Total Value

$692.58

Combined PnL

$12.56

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 47¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCR Flamengo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CR Flamengo

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Grêmio FBPA 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

CR Flamengo47%

Grêmio FBPA53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CR Flamengo8 traders

Total Value$578.58

Total Shares1,212

Combined PnL+$14.15

Grêmio FBPA3 traders

Total Value$114

Total Shares215

Combined PnL-$1.59

CR Flamengo — 73%Grêmio FBPA — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on CR Flamengo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Grêmio FBPA) and the top 1000 (9 on CR Flamengo) disagree here.

whaleCR Flamengo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrGrêmio FBPA 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrêmio FBPA 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000CR Flamengo 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	CR Flamengoavg 46¢	$316.29	$323.14	+$6.85	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
FL FlaznorpCTR	CR Flamengoavg 45.5¢	$186.25	$192.43	+$6.17	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
0xheavy888	Grêmio FBPAavg 54¢	$107.99	$105.99	-$2	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 47.2¢	$20.55	$20.45	-$0.11	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 44.2¢	$11.06	$11.5	+$0.44	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 45.7¢	$10.88	$10.94	+$0.06	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 45¢	$10.44	$10.67	+$0.23	48% 303-327 (630)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 43.2¢	$7.78	$8.28	+$0.5	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
VeryLucky888<$100	Grêmio FBPAavg 53¢	$26.7	$5.38	+$0.53	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Grêmio FBPAavg 59.2¢	$2.95	$2.64	-$0.12	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
HRTradingCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 47.2¢	$1.18	$1.17	-$0.01	51% 7653-7369 (15022)

GoalLineGhostCTR

CR Flamengo

Invested

$316.29

Value

$323.14

PnL

+$6.85

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

FlaznorpCTR

CR Flamengo

Invested

$186.25

Value

$192.43

PnL

+$6.17

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

0xheavy888

Grêmio FBPA

Invested

$107.99

Value

$105.99

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

LimousinCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$20.55

Value

$20.45

PnL

-$0.11

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$11.06

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

sentrioCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

VenusianCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$7.78

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

VeryLucky888<$100

Grêmio FBPA

Invested

$26.7

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.53

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Grêmio FBPA

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

HRTradingCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Research grade

NeutralCR Flamengo at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

CR Flamengo

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Grêmio FBPA 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on CR Flamengo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Grêmio FBPA) and the top 1000 (9 on CR Flamengo) disagree here.

whaleCR Flamengo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrGrêmio FBPA 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrêmio FBPA 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000CR Flamengo 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CR Flamengo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.