Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 0 - 1 EC Bahia?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$683.9

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,924

Combined PnL-$700.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$63.26

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL+$16.8

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$624.95	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$241.77	$265.93	+$24.16	51% 37681-36912 (74593)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.3¢	$141.4	$167.25	+$25.85
└ No leg	Noavg 95.3¢	$100.37	$98.68	-$1.69
RN1	Noavg 99.1¢	$298.25	$222	-$76.25	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$21.48	$31.56	+$10.08	64% 9930-5532 (15462)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$21.48	$31.56	+$10.08	64% 9971-5600 (15571)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	34% 19258-36883 (56141)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$3.5	$0.14	-$3.36	47% 11750-13484 (25234)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,325.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$624.95

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$241.77

Value

$265.93

PnL

+$24.16

Record

51%

37681-36912 (74593)

Both legs:

Yes$141.45.3¢+$25.85

No$100.3795.3¢-$1.69

RN1

Invested

$298.25

Value

$222

PnL

-$76.25

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.48

Value

$31.56

PnL

+$10.08

Record

64%

9930-5532 (15462)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.48

Value

$31.56

PnL

+$10.08

Record

64%

9971-5600 (15571)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

34%

19258-36883 (56141)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.36

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.