Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 21¢ · $467 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$467.42
$8.08
19.6¢ → 20.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $242.49 | $250.73 | +$8.24 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $89.1 | $86.76 | -$2.34 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $50.24 | $52.18 | +$1.93 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $41.99 | $42.12 | +$0.13 | 55% 547-442 (989) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $12.79 | $12.79 | +$0 | 56% 541-433 (974) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $8.05 | $8.1 | +$0.05 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $4.83 | $4.96 | +$0.13 | 59% 3827-2633 (6460) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $4.92 | $4.89 | -$0.03 | 53% 35-31 (66) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $4.92 | $4.89 | -$0.03 | 41% 471-687 (1158) |
Invested
$242.49
Value
$250.73
PnL
+$8.24
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
Invested
$89.1
Value
$86.76
PnL
-$2.34
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
Invested
$50.24
Value
$52.18
PnL
+$1.93
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$41.99
Value
$42.12
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
547-442 (989)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$12.79
Value
$12.79
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
541-433 (974)
Invested
$8.05
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.96
PnL
+$0.13
Record
59%
3827-2633 (6460)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.89
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
35-31 (66)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.89
PnL
-$0.03
Record
41%
471-687 (1158)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.