Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 23¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 3

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$86.17

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 22.5¢

-53% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$634.63

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL-$137.12

Under8 traders

Total Value$848.91

Total Shares1,251

Combined PnL+$223.3

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$8.2K	$7.6K	-$611.49	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.8¢	$3.7K	$4.5K	+$872.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.6¢	$4.5K	$3.1K	$-1.5K
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 52.4¢	$4.6K	$5.1K	+$427.84	50% 27338-27264 (54602)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.4¢	$3.1K	$3.6K	+$538.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$110.72
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$262.13	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$463.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$725.46
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 37.6¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$296.77	49% 14113-14680 (28793)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.6¢	$718.79	$736.09	+$17.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.1¢	$347.33	$626.81	+$279.47
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$667.25	$539.28	-$122.84	45% 13709-16632 (30341)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49.7¢	$395.68	$491.33	+$95.65	53% 928-828 (1756)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$209.2	$217.51	+$8.31	50% 11610-11462 (23072)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.3¢	$134.87	$125.66	-$9.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$74.32	$91.85	+$17.53
LI LimousinARB<$100	Underavg 33.4¢	$159.34	$201.23	+$41.89	56% 959-749 (1708)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.4¢	$132.55	$146.8	+$14.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$26.79	$54.43	+$27.64
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 45.2¢	$113.08	$191.25	+$78.17	59% 31389-22051 (53440)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$101.61	$118.28	+$16.67	52% 847-783 (1630)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.7¢	$69.65	$89.79	+$20.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.2¢	$31.97	$28.49	-$3.48
IW iWasEnough<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$56.68	$95.4	+$38.72	51% 11651-11066 (22717)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$83.75	$92.19	+$8.44	47% 10579-11844 (22423)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.6¢	$50.26	$66.36	+$16.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$33.49	$25.83	-$7.66
SK SkurwysynCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$715.88	$52.02	-$16.73	46% 296-353 (649)
DI dips.<$100	Underavg 53.9¢	$27.51	$35.96	+$8.45	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	$19.52	$18.77	-$0.75	34% 1139-2247 (3386)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 66¢	$17.65	$18.07	+$0.88	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 45.6¢	$10.5	$13.71	+$3.21	84% 14447-2761 (17208)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 40¢	$11.8	$13.13	+$1.32	53% 921-802 (1723)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$7.35	$7.65	+$0.29	76% 4364-1352 (5716)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 31.5¢	$3.15	$3.2	-$0.3	52% 8478-7730 (16208)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 59¢	$1.88	$1.96	+$0.08	82% 6767-1461 (8228)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 56¢	$1.78	$1.81	+$0.03	50% 25264-24973 (50237)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,204.99

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$611.49

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

Both legs:

Over$3,656.6448.8¢+$872.24

Under$4,548.3558.6¢$-1.5K

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,636.98

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$427.84

Record

50%

27338-27264 (54602)

Both legs:

Under$3,087.8152.4¢+$538.56

Over$1,549.1741.5¢-$110.72

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,546.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$262.13

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Both legs:

Under$2,346.1851.4¢+$463.33

Over$2,200.3157.4¢-$725.46

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,066.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$296.77

Record

49%

14113-14680 (28793)

Both legs:

Over$718.7937.6¢+$17.3

Under$347.3334.1¢+$279.47

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$667.25

Value

$539.28

PnL

-$122.84

Record

45%

13709-16632 (30341)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$395.68

Value

$491.33

PnL

+$95.65

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$209.2

Value

$217.51

PnL

+$8.31

Record

50%

11610-11462 (23072)

Both legs:

Over$134.8741.3¢-$9.21

Under$74.3249.8¢+$17.53

LimousinARB<$100

Under

Invested

$159.34

Value

$201.23

PnL

+$41.89

Record

56%

959-749 (1708)

Both legs:

Under$132.5533.4¢+$14.25

Over$26.7931¢+$27.64

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$113.08

Value

$191.25

PnL

+$78.17

Record

59%

31389-22051 (53440)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$101.61

Value

$118.28

PnL

+$16.67

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

Both legs:

Under$69.6547.7¢+$20.14

Over$31.9743.2¢-$3.48

iWasEnough<$100

Under

Invested

$56.68

Value

$95.4

PnL

+$38.72

Record

51%

11651-11066 (22717)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$83.75

Value

$92.19

PnL

+$8.44

Record

47%

10579-11844 (22423)

Both legs:

Under$50.2646.6¢+$16.1

Over$33.4949.9¢-$7.66

SkurwysynCTR

Over

Invested

$715.88

Value

$52.02

PnL

-$16.73

Record

46%

296-353 (649)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$27.51

Value

$35.96

PnL

+$8.45

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.52

Value

$18.77

PnL

-$0.75

Record

34%

1139-2247 (3386)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$17.65

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$0.88

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.5

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$3.21

Record

84%

14447-2761 (17208)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$11.8

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.29

Record

76%

4364-1352 (5716)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

8478-7730 (16208)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

82%

6767-1461 (8228)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

25264-24973 (50237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.