VfL Osnabrück vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 60¢ · $132 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$132
$424.35
87.6¢ → 60¢
-32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.3¢ | $104.65 | $66.6 | -$38.05 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 81.5¢ | $156.79 | $52.08 | +$146.84 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $42.47 | $9 | +$314.57 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $0.94 | $2.22 | +$1.28 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
DA dashattacker<$100 | Underavg 68.1¢ | $2.38 | $2.1 | -$0.28 | 73% 3120-1177 (4297) |
Invested
$104.65
Value
$66.6
PnL
-$38.05
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$156.79
Value
$52.08
PnL
+$146.84
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1<$100Invested
$42.47
Value
$9
PnL
+$314.57
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$2.22
PnL
+$1.28
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$2.38
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.28
Record
73%
3120-1177 (4297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.