Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 7

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$442.21

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 89.5¢

+25% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares7,269

Combined PnL+$553.62

Yes4 traders

Total Value$296.04

Total Shares2,391

Combined PnL-$111.41

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 69.1¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$551.48	62% 1921-1168 (3089)
VE Venusian	Noavg 82.6¢	$1.1K	$998.34	-$144.37	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.7K	$964.94	-$723.74	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
└ No leg	Noavg 66¢	$399.67	$541.98	+$142.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$1.3K	$422.95	-$866.05
oieshfn345	Noavg 77.9¢	$747.13	$753.7	+$6.57	57% 2109-1562 (3671)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 64.6¢	$401.63	$550.2	+$148.56	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 75.2¢	$394.87	$362.37	-$32.5	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$206.77	$152.04	-$54.73	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$177.08	$119.95	-$57.14	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
LI Limousin	Noavg 73.2¢	$87.81	$106.15	+$18.34	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 73¢	$29.2	$35.4	+$6.2	84% 15063-2928 (17991)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$34.63	$33.97	-$0.66	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$21.61	$20.48	-$1.13	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.98	$3.58	+$1.6	47% 9560-10672 (20232)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$3,016.59

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$551.48

Record

62%

1921-1168 (3089)

Venusian

Invested

$1,142.71

Value

$998.34

PnL

-$144.37

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,688.68

Value

$964.94

PnL

-$723.74

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

Both legs:

No$399.6766¢+$142.31

Yes$1,28932¢-$866.05

oieshfn345

Invested

$747.13

Value

$753.7

PnL

+$6.57

Record

57%

2109-1562 (3671)

LightParadox

Invested

$401.63

Value

$550.2

PnL

+$148.56

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Flaznorp

Invested

$394.87

Value

$362.37

PnL

-$32.5

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$206.77

Value

$152.04

PnL

-$54.73

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.08

Value

$119.95

PnL

-$57.14

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

Limousin

Invested

$87.81

Value

$106.15

PnL

+$18.34

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$6.2

Record

84%

15063-2928 (17991)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$34.63

Value

$33.97

PnL

-$0.66

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.61

Value

$20.48

PnL

-$1.13

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.6

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.