Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 42¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 7

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$146.44

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 41.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,275

Combined PnL-$108.78

Yes8 traders

Total Value$429.76

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL-$37.66

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$5.5K	$4.6K	-$925.97	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.8¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$63.15
└ No leg	Noavg 61.9¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$862.82
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$526.97	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$498.13
└ No leg	Noavg 40¢	$577.93	$606.77	+$28.84
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 42.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$39.83	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 53.7¢	$784.15	$718.2	-$65.95	57% 2109-1562 (3671)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.7¢	$464.11	$514.08	+$49.97
└ No leg	Noavg 63.5¢	$320.04	$204.12	-$115.92
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$448.75	$433.99	-$14.76	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.3¢	$382.4	$327.74	-$54.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$66.35	$106.26	+$39.91
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 51.2¢	$231.12	$187.28	-$43.84	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 39.1¢	$123.08	$114.76	-$8.32	84% 15063-2928 (17991)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 37.2¢	$105.23	$100.55	-$4.68	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$91.14	$87.04	-$4.1	59% 33219-23387 (56606)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 64¢	$64.34	$64.3	-$0.04	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$34.84	$37.84	+$2.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$29.5	$26.46	-$3.04
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 49.7¢	$81.27	$59.74	-$21.53	62% 1921-1168 (3089)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$65.45	$49.01	-$16.45	47% 9560-10672 (20232)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$21.77	$21.59	-$0.18	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 53.3¢	$19.07	$20.09	+$1.02	64% 5376-2994 (8370)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$23.38	$14.71	-$8.67	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$13.41	$13.89	+$0.48	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 31.4¢	$12.45	$12.1	-$0.35	51% 6512-6276 (12788)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$5,487.28

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$925.97

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

Both legs:

Yes$2,873.3659.8¢-$63.15

No$2,613.9161.9¢-$862.82

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,686.13

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$526.97

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

Both legs:

Yes$1,108.240¢+$498.13

No$577.9340¢+$28.84

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,285.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39.83

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$784.15

Value

$718.2

PnL

-$65.95

Record

57%

2109-1562 (3671)

Both legs:

Yes$464.1153.7¢+$49.97

No$320.0463.5¢-$115.92

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$448.75

Value

$433.99

PnL

-$14.76

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Both legs:

No$382.447.3¢-$54.66

Yes$66.3537.2¢+$39.91

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$231.12

Value

$187.28

PnL

-$43.84

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$123.08

Value

$114.76

PnL

-$8.32

Record

84%

15063-2928 (17991)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$105.23

Value

$100.55

PnL

-$4.68

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.14

Value

$87.04

PnL

-$4.1

Record

59%

33219-23387 (56606)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$64.34

Value

$64.3

PnL

-$0.04

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

Both legs:

Invested

$81.27

Value

$59.74

PnL

-$21.53

Record

62%

1921-1168 (3089)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$65.45

Value

$49.01

PnL

-$16.45

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.77

Value

$21.59

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.07

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$1.02

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$23.38

Value

$14.71

PnL

-$8.67

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.41

Value

$13.89

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.45

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.