Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-11-06?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$850.35

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 99.5¢

+17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares11,572

Combined PnL+$431.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,231

Combined PnL+$419.31

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 92¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$124.43	53% 61787-54062 (115849)
0X 0xce81e3c66a532c95b4d3e190aed398518eee9820	Noavg 74¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$20.27	— 6-5 (11)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 88.2¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$225.86	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 12.3¢	$346.78	$704.98	+$358.2	50% 28617-28446 (57063)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.6¢	$422.94	$431.06	+$8.11	51% 1648-1556 (3204)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$345.35	$298.87	-$46.48	57% 2067-1534 (3601)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$279.88	$235.77	-$44.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.9¢	$65.47	$63.1	-$2.37
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 78.3¢	$201.65	$241.51	+$39.86	46% 1671-1955 (3626)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 93.9¢	$212.48	$224.79	+$12.31	49% 1546-1631 (3177)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$739.42	$137.22	-$602.2	50% 37969-37225 (75194)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$673.47	$71.23	-$602.23
└ No leg	Noavg 97.2¢	$65.96	$65.99	+$0.03
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$58.83	$128	+$69.17	62% 1912-1155 (3067)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$110.71	$106.46	-$2.13	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$110.55	$106.3	-$2.13	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$69.06	$68.85	-$0.21	50% 1611-1634 (3245)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 74¢	$13.28	$13.46	+$0.18	51% 6449-6228 (12677)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73¢	$8.11	$8.33	+$0.22	49% 14854-15645 (30499)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.64	$0.64	+$0.01	53% 16941-15068 (32009)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.05	$0.23	-$3.82	64% 5335-2949 (8284)

RN1

Invested

$4,125.07

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$124.43

Record

53%

61787-54062 (115849)

0xce81e3c66a532c95b4d3e190aed398518eee9820

Invested

$2,999.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$20.27

Record

—

6-5 (11)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,967.4

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$225.86

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.78

Value

$704.98

PnL

+$358.2

Record

50%

28617-28446 (57063)

Limousin

Invested

$422.94

Value

$431.06

PnL

+$8.11

Record

51%

1648-1556 (3204)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$345.35

Value

$298.87

PnL

-$46.48

Record

57%

2067-1534 (3601)

Both legs:

No$279.8889¢-$44.11

Yes$65.4725.9¢-$2.37

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$201.65

Value

$241.51

PnL

+$39.86

Record

46%

1671-1955 (3626)

MadridTime

Invested

$212.48

Value

$224.79

PnL

+$12.31

Record

49%

1546-1631 (3177)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$739.42

Value

$137.22

PnL

-$602.2

Record

50%

37969-37225 (75194)

Both legs:

Yes$673.4726¢-$602.23

No$65.9697.2¢+$0.03

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$58.83

Value

$128

PnL

+$69.17

Record

62%

1912-1155 (3067)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.71

Value

$106.46

PnL

-$2.13

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.55

Value

$106.3

PnL

-$2.13

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$69.06

Value

$68.85

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

1611-1634 (3245)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$13.28

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

6449-6228 (12677)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

14854-15645 (30499)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$3.82

Record

64%

5335-2949 (8284)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.