Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 50% (5–5, n=10) · was PM monthly #978 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$20.0K
Record
5W / 5L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1234
Source
PM monthly #978
Record (90 d)
5/5 · 100%
Trades
89
Markets
10
Volume
$113.7K
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Large accounts take up to ~20 s
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Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 63¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xce81e3c66a532c95b4d3e190aed398518eee9820's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 60%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.