Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Aquila Basket Trento, while the market favors Virtus Bologna (55%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Virtus Bologna (-5.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Aquila Basket Trento (100%) · Aquila Basket Trento at 45¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Aquila Basket Trento
4
Aquila Basket Trento 100%
$64.22
-$3.9
Research grade
AvoidAquila Basket Trento at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus Bologna 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100 | Aquila Basket Trentoavg 48¢ | $48 | $45 | -$3 | 37% 96-161 (257) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Aquila Basket Trentoavg 50¢ | $10 | $9 | -$1 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100 | Aquila Basket Trentoavg 43¢ | $7.62 | $7.97 | +$0.35 | 41% 166-240 (406) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Aquila Basket Trentoavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.25 | -$0.25 | 41% 1195-1702 (2897) |
Invested
$48
Value
$45
PnL
-$3
Record
37%
96-161 (257)
Invested
$10
Value
$9
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$7.62
Value
$7.97
PnL
+$0.35
Record
41%
166-240 (406)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
41%
1195-1702 (2897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.