Aquila Basket Trento vs. Virtus Bologna

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Virtus Bologna (33%) · Virtus Bologna at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Aquila Basket Trento2¢Virtus Bologna98¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virtus Bologna

Consensus Traders

Virtus Bologna 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$86.3

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 98¢

+30% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirtus Bologna at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virtus Bologna

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aquila Basket Trento2%

Virtus Bologna98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virtus Bologna2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,725

Combined PnL+$105.73

Aquila Basket Trento4 traders

Total Value$16.54

Total Shares163

Combined PnL-$19.43

Virtus Bologna — 33%Aquila Basket Trento — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Virtus Bologna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAquila Basket Trento 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Aquila Basket Trento 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Virtus Bolognaavg 86.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$105.47	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
NO NotJump	Virtus Bolognaavg 50¢	$525	$516.26	+$0.26	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 86¢	$466.7	$439.54	-$27.16	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 86¢	$273.33	$282.98	+$9.65
└ Aquila Basket Trento leg	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 13.6¢	$193.37	$156.56	-$36.81
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 27¢	$24.24	$9.88	-$14.37	41% 166-240 (406)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 16.1¢	$6.83	$4.67	-$2.16	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 13¢	$3.4	$1.44	-$1.96	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 30¢	$1.5	$0.55	-$0.95	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

Flaznorp

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$1,283.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$105.47

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

NotJump

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$525

Value

$516.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$466.7

Value

$439.54

PnL

-$27.16

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

Both legs:

Virtus Bologna$273.3386¢+$9.65

Aquila Basket Trento$193.3713.6¢-$36.81

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$24.24

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$14.37

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$6.83

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$2.16

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$3.4

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$1.96

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

sentrioCTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.95

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

AvoidVirtus Bologna at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Virtus Bologna

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Virtus Bologna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAquila Basket Trento 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Aquila Basket Trento 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virtus Bologna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.