Spread: MKS Start Lublin (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold MKS Start Lublin (40%) · MKS Start Lublin at 100¢ · $920 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
MKS Start Lublin
5
MKS Start Lublin 40%
$919.74
-$176.23
54.1¢ → 99.6¢
+84% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMKS Start Lublin at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on MKS Start Lublin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI viper0310 | MKS Start Lublinavg 54¢ | $538.24 | $493.45 | -$44.79 | — 3-1 (4) |
SE sentrioCTR | GTK Gliwiceavg 45¢ | $96.32 | $190.49 | +$94.18 | 43% 822-1082 (1904) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | GTK Gliwiceavg 46¢ | $94.76 | $183.34 | +$88.58 | 50% 1687-1721 (3408) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | MKS Start Lublinavg 55¢ | $55 | $49.5 | -$5.5 | 53% 1056-934 (1990) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | GTK Gliwiceavg 47.3¢ | $311.66 | $2.96 | -$308.7 | 51% 3230-3163 (6393) |
Invested
$538.24
Value
$493.45
PnL
-$44.79
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Invested
$96.32
Value
$190.49
PnL
+$94.18
Record
43%
822-1082 (1904)
Invested
$94.76
Value
$183.34
PnL
+$88.58
Record
50%
1687-1721 (3408)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$5.5
Record
53%
1056-934 (1990)
Invested
$311.66
Value
$2.96
PnL
-$308.7
Record
51%
3230-3163 (6393)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.