Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold GTK Gliwice, while the market favors MKS Start Lublin (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

MKS Start Lublin vs. GTK Gliwice

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold GTK Gliwice (75%) · GTK Gliwice at 0.1¢ · $598 held · ends Nov 20

MKS Start Lublin>99¢GTK Gliwice<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

GTK Gliwice

Consensus Traders

GTK Gliwice 75%

Total Value

$597.91

Combined PnL

-$59.87

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidGTK Gliwice at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GTK Gliwice

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors MKS Start Lublin 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MKS Start Lublin100%

GTK Gliwice0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GTK Gliwice6 traders

Total Value$559.25

Total Shares714

Combined PnL-$59.12

MKS Start Lublin2 traders

Total Value$38.66

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$0.75

GTK Gliwice — 75%MKS Start Lublin — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	GTK Gliwiceavg 78.7¢	$303.7	$291.58	-$12.12	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
poshposhCTR	GTK Gliwiceavg 88.1¢	$217.07	$198.17	-$18.91	47% 786-902 (1688)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	GTK Gliwiceavg 88¢	$75.79	$43.92	-$31.87	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	MKS Start Lublinavg 64¢	$38.39	$29.39	-$9	44% 392-498 (890)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	GTK Gliwiceavg 42¢	$11.22	$15.76	+$4.54	35% 750-1386 (2136)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	GTK Gliwiceavg 22¢	$11.34	$9.79	-$1.55	36% 432-771 (1203)
FE ferdinand2<$100	MKS Start Lublinavg 11¢	$1.02	$9.27	+$8.25	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	GTK Gliwiceavg 49¢	$39.2	$0.02	+$0.78	82% 538-116 (654)

FlaznorpCTR

GTK Gliwice

Invested

$303.7

Value

$291.58

PnL

-$12.12

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

poshposhCTR

GTK Gliwice

Invested

$217.07

Value

$198.17

PnL

-$18.91

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

cigarettesCTR<$100

GTK Gliwice

Invested

$75.79

Value

$43.92

PnL

-$31.87

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

omnibus-076daa<$100

MKS Start Lublin

Invested

$38.39

Value

$29.39

PnL

-$9

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

GTK Gliwice

Invested

$11.22

Value

$15.76

PnL

+$4.54

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

GTK Gliwice

Invested

$11.34

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$1.55

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

ferdinand2<$100

MKS Start Lublin

Invested

$1.02

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$8.25

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

GTK Gliwice

Invested

$39.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.78

Record

82%

538-116 (654)

Research grade

AvoidGTK Gliwice at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

GTK Gliwice

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors MKS Start Lublin 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GTK Gliwice wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.