South East Melbourne Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 199.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 86¢ · $558 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$557.54
-$61.18
59.1¢ → 85.5¢
+45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 59.5¢ | $558.33 | $499.73 | -$58.6 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $29.15 | $26.86 | -$2.29 | 37% 338-564 (902) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $20.63 | $20.63 | +$0 | 46% 108-128 (236) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $9.44 | $9.19 | -$0.24 | 53% 1782-1584 (3366) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $1.17 | $1.13 | -$0.04 | 52% 440-413 (853) |
Invested
$558.33
Value
$499.73
PnL
-$58.6
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$29.15
Value
$26.86
PnL
-$2.29
Record
37%
338-564 (902)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$20.63
Value
$20.63
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
108-128 (236)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$9.19
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
1782-1584 (3366)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
440-413 (853)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.