South East Melbourne Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold South East Melbourne Phoenix (33%) · South East Melbourne Phoenix at 59¢ · $878 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
South East Melbourne Phoenix
6
South East Melbourne Phoenix 33%
$878.09
$92.22
74.1¢ → 59¢
-20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSouth East Melbourne Phoenix at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 72.8¢ | $426.2 | $334.78 | +$11.78 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 76.1¢ | $254.7 | $256.18 | +$1.48 | 53% 1763-1567 (3330) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Illawarra Hawksavg 30.9¢ | $120.74 | $158.44 | +$37.71 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
 tradecraftCTR | Illawarra Hawksavg 24¢ | $60 | $101.25 | +$41.25 | 19% 145-607 (752) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Illawarra Hawksavg 25¢ | $23.83 | $23.83 | +$0 | 30% 361-847 (1208) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Illawarra Hawksavg 25¢ | $3.6 | $3.6 | +$0 | 31% 363-824 (1187) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$426.2
Value
$334.78
PnL
+$11.78
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$254.7
Value
$256.18
PnL
+$1.48
Record
53%
1763-1567 (3330)
Invested
$120.74
Value
$158.44
PnL
+$37.71
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$60
Value
$101.25
PnL
+$41.25
Record
19%
145-607 (752)
Invested
$23.83
Value
$23.83
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
361-847 (1208)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
363-824 (1187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.