Spread: Perth Wildcats (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Illawarra Hawks (57%) · Illawarra Hawks at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Perth Wildcats30¢Illawarra Hawks70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Illawarra Hawks

Consensus Traders

Illawarra Hawks 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$65.7

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 70.5¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illawarra Hawks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Perth Wildcats30%

Illawarra Hawks71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illawarra Hawks4 traders

Total Value$952.61

Total Shares1,847

Combined PnL+$54.53

Perth Wildcats3 traders

Total Value$96.8

Total Shares203

Combined PnL+$11.17

Illawarra Hawks — 57%Perth Wildcats — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingAddict12345	Illawarra Hawksavg 48¢	$764.03	$803.82	+$39.79	52% 37-34 (71)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 46.5¢	$269.06	$286.27	+$17.2	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 46.5¢	$192.35	$209.11	+$16.76
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 49.2¢	$76.71	$77.15	+$0.45
SU suntoriARB<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 48.5¢	$126.64	$115.95	+$0.73	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 48.5¢	$88.44	$90.32	+$1.77
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 52.5¢	$26.66	$25.63	-$1.03
VeryLucky888	Illawarra Hawksavg 49.5¢	$349.53	$101.02	+$14.19	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Perth Wildcatsavg 47¢	$179.7	$58.77	+$11	19% 44-191 (235)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 50.5¢	$42.48	$42.72	+$0.24	46% 479-564 (1043)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 47¢	$27.26	$26.97	-$0.29	43% 178-237 (415)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 46¢	$10.59	$11.05	+$0.46	42% 979-1345 (2324)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 47¢	$4.75	$5.05	+$0.3	48% 2045-2201 (4246)

GamblingAddict12345

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$764.03

Value

$803.82

PnL

+$39.79

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$269.06

Value

$286.27

PnL

+$17.2

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

Both legs:

Perth Wildcats$192.3546.5¢+$16.76

Illawarra Hawks$76.7149.2¢+$0.45

suntoriARB<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$126.64

Value

$115.95

PnL

+$0.73

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Both legs:

Perth Wildcats$88.4448.5¢+$1.77

Illawarra Hawks$26.6652.5¢-$1.03

VeryLucky888

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$349.53

Value

$101.02

PnL

+$14.19

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

NotradecopyCTR

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$179.7

Value

$58.77

PnL

+$11

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$42.48

Value

$42.72

PnL

+$0.24

Record

46%

479-564 (1043)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$27.26

Value

$26.97

PnL

-$0.29

Record

43%

178-237 (415)

sentrioCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$10.59

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.46

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

ferdinand2<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

Research grade

AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Illawarra Hawks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illawarra Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.