Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Perth Wildcats (63%) · Perth Wildcats at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Perth Wildcats53¢Illawarra Hawks47¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Perth Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Perth Wildcats 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$48.17

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 52.5¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPerth Wildcats at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Perth Wildcats

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Perth Wildcats53%

Illawarra Hawks48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Perth Wildcats5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,970

Combined PnL-$56.93

Illawarra Hawks3 traders

Total Value$119.19

Total Shares286

Combined PnL+$8.76

Perth Wildcats — 63%Illawarra Hawks — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Perth Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPerth Wildcats 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Perth Wildcats 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingAddict12345	Perth Wildcatsavg 61¢	$525.75	$499.89	-$25.86	53% 38-34 (72)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 49.8¢	$538.3	$481.69	+$0.68	52% 808-738 (1546)
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 49.8¢	$275.8	$262.82	-$12.98
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 50¢	$208.45	$218.87	+$13.67
tradecraft	Perth Wildcatsavg 62.3¢	$426.93	$398.42	-$28.51	30% 331-772 (1103)
poshposh	Perth Wildcatsavg 59¢	$177	$174	-$3	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 62.1¢	$147.6	$147.44	-$0.16	46% 2570-3056 (5626)
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 62.1¢	$99.99	$93.4	-$6.59
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 37¢	$47.61	$54.04	+$6.43
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 36.5¢	$328.92	$135.17	+$12.77	53% 1335-1164 (2499)
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 36.5¢	$70.47	$81.13	+$13.73
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 61¢	$56.83	$54.04	-$0.96
probability<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 59¢	$52.75	$51.86	-$0.89	52% 30-28 (58)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 37¢	$47.36	$47.36	-$0	36% 944-1666 (2610)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 36.5¢	$40.22	$40.82	+$0.6	46% 481-569 (1050)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 58.3¢	$34.45	$35.78	+$1.33	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 30¢	$22.85	$31.01	+$8.16	49% 3800-3964 (7764)

GamblingAddict12345

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$525.75

Value

$499.89

PnL

-$25.86

Record

53%

38-34 (72)

NotJumpARB<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$538.3

Value

$481.69

PnL

+$0.68

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

Both legs:

Illawarra Hawks$275.849.8¢-$12.98

Perth Wildcats$208.4550¢+$13.67

tradecraft

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$426.93

Value

$398.42

PnL

-$28.51

Record

30%

331-772 (1103)

poshposh

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$177

Value

$174

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

suntoriARB<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$147.6

Value

$147.44

PnL

-$0.16

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

Both legs:

Perth Wildcats$99.9962.1¢-$6.59

Illawarra Hawks$47.6137¢+$6.43

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$328.92

Value

$135.17

PnL

+$12.77

Record

53%

1335-1164 (2499)

Both legs:

Illawarra Hawks$70.4736.5¢+$13.73

Perth Wildcats$56.8361¢-$0.96

probability<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$52.75

Value

$51.86

PnL

-$0.89

Record

52%

30-28 (58)

VenusianCTR<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$47.36

Value

$47.36

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$40.22

Value

$40.82

PnL

+$0.6

Record

46%

481-569 (1050)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$34.45

Value

$35.78

PnL

+$1.33

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$22.85

Value

$31.01

PnL

+$8.16

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

Research grade

AvoidPerth Wildcats at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Perth Wildcats

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Perth Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPerth Wildcats 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Perth Wildcats 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Perth Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.