Spread: Melbourne United (-7.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne United (40%) · Melbourne United at 60¢ · $681 held · ended Nov 14

Melbourne United60¢South East Melbourne Phoenix40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Melbourne United

Consensus Traders

Melbourne United 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$681.35

Combined PnL

-$11.02

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 60¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne United60%

South East Melbourne Phoenix40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne United2 traders

Total Value$326.04

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$47.68

South East Melbourne Phoenix3 traders

Total Value$121.46

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$58.7

Melbourne United — 40%South East Melbourne Phoenix — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on South East Melbourne Phoenix) and the top 1000 (4 on Melbourne United) disagree here.

ctrSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Melbourne United 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntoriARB<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 57.3¢	$284.75	$233.85	-$50.9	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
└ South East Melbourne Phoenix leg	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 57.3¢	$207.61	$123.17	-$84.44
└ Melbourne United leg	Melbourne Unitedavg 46¢	$77.14	$110.68	+$33.54
FL Flaznorp	Melbourne Unitedavg 58.7¢	$219.71	$227.87	+$8.16	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
VeryLucky888CTR	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 54.3¢	$443	$99.33	-$46.59	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 46¢	$58.65	$98.18	+$39.53	43% 178-237 (415)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 53¢	$31.84	$20.43	-$11.42	52% 37-34 (71)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.7	-$0.7	48% 2045-2201 (4246)

suntoriARB<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$284.75

Value

$233.85

PnL

-$50.9

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Both legs:

South East Melbourne Phoenix$207.6157.3¢-$84.44

Melbourne United$77.1446¢+$33.54

Flaznorp

Melbourne United

Invested

$219.71

Value

$227.87

PnL

+$8.16

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

VeryLucky888CTR

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$443

Value

$99.33

PnL

-$46.59

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

NatoAlfista<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$58.65

Value

$98.18

PnL

+$39.53

Record

43%

178-237 (415)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$31.84

Value

$20.43

PnL

-$11.42

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on South East Melbourne Phoenix) and the top 1000 (4 on Melbourne United) disagree here.

ctrSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Melbourne United 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne United wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.