Melbourne United vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne United (57%) · Melbourne United at 94¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 21

Melbourne United94¢South East Melbourne Phoenix6¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Melbourne United

Consensus Traders

Melbourne United 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$686.3

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 93.8¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne United94%

South East Melbourne Phoenix6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne United8 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,622

Combined PnL+$688.78

South East Melbourne Phoenix6 traders

Total Value$39.47

Total Shares1,329

Combined PnL-$2.48

Melbourne United — 57%South East Melbourne Phoenix — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMelbourne United 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Melbourne United 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Melbourne Unitedavg 86.9¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$199.46	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
PA pagliacci4	Melbourne Unitedavg 98.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$16.13	68% 69-32 (101)
MO mouzsynapse	Melbourne Unitedavg 69¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$225.14	40% 114-172 (286)
poshposh	Melbourne Unitedavg 66.8¢	$519.32	$652.96	+$133.65	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
SU suntori	Melbourne Unitedavg 93.9¢	$577.1	$529.22	-$32.49	46% 2530-3008 (5538)
tradecraft	Melbourne Unitedavg 70.1¢	$324.18	$438.73	+$114.54	30% 323-769 (1092)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 4.4¢	$347.77	$414.71	+$66.93	50% 2500-2457 (4957)
└ South East Melbourne Phoenix leg	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 4.4¢	$181.61	$234.06	+$52.45
└ Melbourne United leg	Melbourne Unitedavg 86.7¢	$166.16	$180.64	+$14.48
VeryLucky888	Melbourne Unitedavg 69.1¢	$772.68	$331.75	+$63.99	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
alpheclabs2	Melbourne Unitedavg 91¢	$111.93	$112.55	+$0.61	45% 280-340 (620)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 50¢	$525	$108.35	+$4.06	52% 802-736 (1538)
└ Melbourne United leg	Melbourne Unitedavg 50¢	$39.71	$74.13	+$230.35
└ South East Melbourne Phoenix leg	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 50¢	$257.24	$34.21	-$226.29
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 2.1¢	$12	$15.29	+$3.29	53% 7022-6168 (13190)
dips.CTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 2.2¢	$5.29	$6.85	+$1.56	47% 954-1080 (2034)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 1.7¢	$5.57	$6.1	+$0.53	45% 644-802 (1446)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 29¢	$8.89	$4.91	-$3.99	42% 979-1345 (2324)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 29¢	$8.84	$4.88	-$3.96	37% 961-1629 (2590)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 2¢	$13.46	$1.45	+$0.09	48% 2045-2201 (4246)

Flaznorp

Melbourne United

Invested

$3,781.93

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$199.46

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

pagliacci4

Melbourne United

Invested

$1,948.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$16.13

Record

68%

69-32 (101)

mouzsynapse

Melbourne United

Invested

$1,035.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$225.14

Record

40%

114-172 (286)

poshposh

Melbourne United

Invested

$519.32

Value

$652.96

PnL

+$133.65

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

suntori

Melbourne United

Invested

$577.1

Value

$529.22

PnL

-$32.49

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

tradecraft

Melbourne United

Invested

$324.18

Value

$438.73

PnL

+$114.54

Record

30%

323-769 (1092)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$347.77

Value

$414.71

PnL

+$66.93

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

Both legs:

South East Melbourne Phoenix$181.614.4¢+$52.45

Melbourne United$166.1686.7¢+$14.48

VeryLucky888

Melbourne United

Invested

$772.68

Value

$331.75

PnL

+$63.99

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

alpheclabs2

Melbourne United

Invested

$111.93

Value

$112.55

PnL

+$0.61

Record

45%

280-340 (620)

NotJumpARB<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$525

Value

$108.35

PnL

+$4.06

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

Both legs:

Melbourne United$39.7150¢+$230.35

South East Melbourne Phoenix$257.2450¢-$226.29

cigarettesCTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$12

Value

$15.29

PnL

+$3.29

Record

53%

7022-6168 (13190)

dips.CTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$5.29

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$1.56

Record

47%

954-1080 (2034)

smithagentCTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$5.57

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0.53

Record

45%

644-802 (1446)

sentrioCTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$8.89

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$3.99

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$8.84

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$3.96

Record

37%

961-1629 (2590)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$13.46

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMelbourne United 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Melbourne United 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne United wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.