Adelaide 36ers vs. Melbourne United

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne United (78%) · Melbourne United at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19

Adelaide 36ers45¢Melbourne United55¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Melbourne United

Consensus Traders

Melbourne United 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$48.01

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 55.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adelaide 36ers45%

Melbourne United56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne United7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,080

Combined PnL-$48.52

Adelaide 36ers2 traders

Total Value$45.06

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$0.52

Melbourne United — 78%Adelaide 36ers — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMelbourne United 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMelbourne United 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Melbourne United 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 55.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1.95	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
└ Melbourne United leg	Melbourne Unitedavg 55.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$48.56
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 41.5¢	$420.28	$470.79	+$50.5
SU suntori	Melbourne Unitedavg 59.6¢	$737.81	$649.56	-$88.25	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
NO Notradecopy	Melbourne Unitedavg 56¢	$468.37	$485.1	+$16.73	10% 20-174 (194)
MO mouzsynapse	Melbourne Unitedavg 55¢	$283.56	$288.72	+$5.16	41% 63-89 (152)
VeryLucky888	Melbourne Unitedavg 55.5¢	$928.68	$274.32	+$17.13	52% 718-671 (1389)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 52.7¢	$99	$78.03	+$7.6	41% 83-118 (201)
└ Melbourne United leg	Melbourne Unitedavg 52.7¢	$53.92	$54.78	+$4.35
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 40¢	$20	$23.25	+$3.25
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 43¢	$33.97	$33.97	+$0	39% 99-156 (255)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 52.2¢	$14.47	$14.83	+$0.36	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 41¢	$10.58	$11.09	+$0.52	32% 522-1096 (1618)
probability<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 54¢	$7.65	$8.08	+$0.43	44% 11-14 (25)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.73	-$0.07	50% 1181-1203 (2384)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$2,025.39

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.95

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Both legs:

Melbourne United$1,605.155.2¢-$48.56

Adelaide 36ers$420.2841.5¢+$50.5

suntori

Melbourne United

Invested

$737.81

Value

$649.56

PnL

-$88.25

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Notradecopy

Melbourne United

Invested

$468.37

Value

$485.1

PnL

+$16.73

Record

10%

20-174 (194)

mouzsynapse

Melbourne United

Invested

$283.56

Value

$288.72

PnL

+$5.16

Record

41%

63-89 (152)

VeryLucky888

Melbourne United

Invested

$928.68

Value

$274.32

PnL

+$17.13

Record

52%

718-671 (1389)

mishipolisARB<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$99

Value

$78.03

PnL

+$7.6

Record

41%

83-118 (201)

Both legs:

Melbourne United$53.9252.7¢+$4.35

Adelaide 36ers$2040¢+$3.25

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$33.97

Value

$33.97

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

99-156 (255)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$14.47

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

VenusianCTR<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$10.58

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$0.52

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

probability<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$7.65

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$0.43

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

ferdinand2<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

1181-1203 (2384)

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMelbourne United 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMelbourne United 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Melbourne United 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne United wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.