Adelaide 36ers vs. Melbourne United: O/U 187.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 63¢ · $323 held · ended Nov 12

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$323.38

Combined PnL

-$1.15

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$29.45

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$1.45

Over2 traders

Total Value$25.23

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$2.6

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$264.83	$268.7	+$3.88	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$189.01	$171.75	-$17.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.6¢	$75.82	$96.95	+$21.13
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 37.8¢	$19.04	$19.13	+$0.09	47% 1485-1661 (3146)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$17.6	$16.41	-$1.19	10% 20-174 (194)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 33¢	$8.96	$10.32	+$1.36	41% 533-763 (1296)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$10.23	$8.82	-$1.41	50% 1206-1230 (2436)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$264.83

Value

$268.7

PnL

+$3.88

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

Both legs:

Over$189.0160¢-$17.26

Under$75.8235.6¢+$21.13

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$19.04

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$0.09

Record

47%

1485-1661 (3146)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.6

Value

$16.41

PnL

-$1.19

Record

10%

20-174 (194)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$8.96

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$1.36

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.23

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$1.41

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.