Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Monbus Obradoiro, while the market favors Barcelona (58%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Barcelona (-14.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Monbus Obradoiro (71%) · Monbus Obradoiro at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Barcelona58¢Monbus Obradoiro42¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Monbus Obradoiro

Consensus Traders

Monbus Obradoiro 71%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$605.38

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 42¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMonbus Obradoiro at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Monbus Obradoiro

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Barcelona 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Barcelona58%

Monbus Obradoiro42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Monbus Obradoiro5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,837

Combined PnL-$644.31

Barcelona2 traders

Total Value$167.38

Total Shares316

Combined PnL+$38.93

Monbus Obradoiro — 71%Barcelona — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Monbus Obradoiro. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMonbus Obradoiro 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Monbus Obradoiro 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 40.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$162.91	41% 739-1047 (1786)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 43.2¢	$1.4K	$949.26	-$466.07	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Barcelonaavg 41¢	$150.68	$159.97	+$37.53	57% 62-47 (109)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 43.2¢	$66.95	$55.85	-$11.11	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
dips.CTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 41¢	$23.78	$20.88	-$2.9	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
poshposhCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 42¢	$9.21	$7.9	-$1.32	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
SE sentrio<$100	Barcelonaavg 43¢	$6.01	$7.4	+$1.4	41% 1189-1686 (2875)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$1,407.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$162.91

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

FlaznorpCTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$1,415.33

Value

$949.26

PnL

-$466.07

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

GamblingAddict12345

Barcelona

Invested

$150.68

Value

$159.97

PnL

+$37.53

Record

57%

62-47 (109)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$66.95

Value

$55.85

PnL

-$11.11

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

dips.CTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$23.78

Value

$20.88

PnL

-$2.9

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

poshposhCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$9.21

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$1.32

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

sentrio<$100

Barcelona

Invested

$6.01

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Research grade

AvoidMonbus Obradoiro at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Monbus Obradoiro

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Barcelona 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Monbus Obradoiro. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMonbus Obradoiro 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Monbus Obradoiro 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Monbus Obradoiro wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.