Barcelona vs. Monbus Obradoiro

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Barcelona (22%) · Barcelona at 96¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 22

Barcelona96¢Monbus Obradoiro4¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Barcelona

Consensus Traders

Barcelona 22%

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

$90.86

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 95.6¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBarcelona at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Barcelona

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Barcelona96%

Monbus Obradoiro4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Barcelona4 traders

Total Value$32.5K

Total Shares33,019

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Monbus Obradoiro14 traders

Total Value$968.55

Total Shares33,456

Combined PnL-$987.8

Barcelona — 22%Monbus Obradoiro — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-76 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBarcelona 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMonbus Obradoiro 83% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Monbus Obradoiro 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZO Zombie77	Barcelonaavg 94.4¢	$28.6K	$29.8K	+$1.2K	85% 17-3 (20)
SN SnakeBall	Barcelonaavg 97.8¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$124.82	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
NO NotJump	Barcelonaavg 62.4¢	$1.0K	$883.11	-$2.18	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 5¢	$249.7	$247.67	-$2.04	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
CI cigarettesCTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 5.1¢	$248.14	$245.66	-$2.48	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 6¢	$594.51	$167.9	-$426.61	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
SM smithagentCTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 5.1¢	$288.42	$93.03	-$195.38	46% 882-1039 (1921)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 11¢	$187.91	$85.42	-$102.5	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
dips.CTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 5.2¢	$135.55	$42.61	-$91.28	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Monbus Obradoiroavg 7¢	$175	$41.25	-$133.75	41% 739-1047 (1786)
poshposhCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 5¢	$18.21	$18.21	+$0	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 10.9¢	$26.8	$12.26	-$14.55	35% 139-253 (392)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 6.1¢	$22.82	$6.14	-$16.68	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 2¢	$4.76	$5.83	+$1.07	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Barcelonaavg 95¢	$5.75	$5.17	-$0.33	12% 63-448 (511)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 11¢	$3.18	$1.45	-$1.73	35% 635-1160 (1795)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 10¢	$1.6	$0.8	-$0.8	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Monbus Obradoiroavg 7¢	$1.4	$0.33	-$1.07	34% 476-910 (1386)

Zombie77

Barcelona

Invested

$28,610.32

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

85%

17-3 (20)

SnakeBall

Barcelona

Invested

$1,948.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$124.82

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

NotJump

Barcelona

Invested

$1,034.19

Value

$883.11

PnL

-$2.18

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$249.7

Value

$247.67

PnL

-$2.04

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

cigarettesCTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$248.14

Value

$245.66

PnL

-$2.48

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

FlaznorpCTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$594.51

Value

$167.9

PnL

-$426.61

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

smithagentCTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$288.42

Value

$93.03

PnL

-$195.38

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

MadridTimeCTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$187.91

Value

$85.42

PnL

-$102.5

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

dips.CTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$135.55

Value

$42.61

PnL

-$91.28

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$175

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$133.75

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

poshposhCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$18.21

Value

$18.21

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

OddstormCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$26.8

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$14.55

Record

35%

139-253 (392)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$22.82

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$16.68

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

suntoriCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$1.07

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Barcelona

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.33

Record

12%

63-448 (511)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$3.18

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1.73

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

sentrioCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Monbus Obradoiro

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$1.07

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

Research grade

AvoidBarcelona at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Barcelona

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-76 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBarcelona 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMonbus Obradoiro 83% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Monbus Obradoiro 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Barcelona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.