Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sonic Boom, while the market favors Seoul Thunders (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Seoul Thunders vs. Sonic Boom

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Sonic Boom (54%) · Sonic Boom at 0.3¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 16

Seoul Thunders>99¢Sonic Boom<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sonic Boom

Consensus Traders

Sonic Boom 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 0.3¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSonic Boom at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sonic Boom

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Seoul Thunders 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seoul Thunders100%

Sonic Boom0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seoul Thunders6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,989

Combined PnL+$422.91

Sonic Boom7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares11,358

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Seoul Thunders — 46%Sonic Boom — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Seoul Thundersavg 50¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$394.21	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Sonic Boomavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	+$384.49	48% 4193-4519 (8712)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Seoul Thundersavg 99.9¢	$1,000	$997.5	-$2.5	32% 21924-45779 (67703)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sonic Boomavg 55.7¢	$3.4K	$933.44	$-2.5K	47% 2263-2572 (4835)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Sonic Boomavg 55.1¢	$1.6K	$866.72	-$779.88	50% 49262-48786 (98048)
LO looppau	Seoul Thundersavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$498.25	-$1.25	99% 16234-134 (16368)
LI LimousinCTR	Sonic Boomavg 48.4¢	$178.92	$236.43	+$65.8	46% 2762-3197 (5959)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Sonic Boomavg 47.2¢	$167.35	$178.2	-$24.35	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
└ Sonic Boom leg	Sonic Boomavg 47.2¢	$93.65	$126.87	-$1.98
└ Seoul Thunders leg	Seoul Thundersavg 50.2¢	$73.7	$51.34	-$22.37
dips.	Seoul Thundersavg 62¢	$125.16	$167.73	+$42.57	48% 17808-19532 (37340)
CI cigarettes	Seoul Thundersavg 87¢	$131.64	$101.16	-$30.49	50% 66257-66785 (133042)
LR lryyy<$100	Seoul Thundersavg 69.6¢	$61.42	$81.79	+$20.37	48% 40305-43263 (83568)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Sonic Boomavg 19.9¢	$199.06	$0.5	-$198.56	56% 39931-31546 (71477)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Sonic Boomavg 26.9¢	$133.63	$0.49	-$23.15	57% 212-163 (375)
PL plustiCTR	Sonic Boomavg 66.1¢	$101.75	$0.08	-$101.67	44% 23-29 (52)

Flaznorp

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$3,744.15

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$394.21

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

NotradecopyCTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$1,592.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$384.49

Record

48%

4193-4519 (8712)

xtxpleasecallme

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$1,000

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

32%

21924-45779 (67703)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$3,449.47

Value

$933.44

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

47%

2263-2572 (4835)

SnakeBallCTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$1,646.6

Value

$866.72

PnL

-$779.88

Record

50%

49262-48786 (98048)

looppau

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$499.5

Value

$498.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

99%

16234-134 (16368)

LimousinCTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$178.92

Value

$236.43

PnL

+$65.8

Record

46%

2762-3197 (5959)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$167.35

Value

$178.2

PnL

-$24.35

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

Both legs:

Sonic Boom$93.6547.2¢-$1.98

Seoul Thunders$73.750.2¢-$22.37

dips.

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$125.16

Value

$167.73

PnL

+$42.57

Record

48%

17808-19532 (37340)

cigarettes

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$131.64

Value

$101.16

PnL

-$30.49

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

lryyy<$100

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$61.42

Value

$81.79

PnL

+$20.37

Record

48%

40305-43263 (83568)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$199.06

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$198.56

Record

56%

39931-31546 (71477)

suitcase6628CTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$133.63

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$23.15

Record

57%

212-163 (375)

plustiCTR

Sonic Boom

Invested

$101.75

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$101.67

Record

44%

23-29 (52)

Research grade

AvoidSonic Boom at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sonic Boom

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Seoul Thunders 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sonic Boom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.