Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mobis Phoebus, while the market favors Goyang (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Goyang (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mobis Phoebus (40%) · Mobis Phoebus at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Mobis Phoebus
5
Mobis Phoebus 40%
$4.0K
-$78.16
46.6¢ → 44.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMobis Phoebus at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Goyang 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xNuttawutCTR | Mobis Phoebusavg 46.6¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$129.16 | 56% 23-18 (41) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Goyangavg 52¢ | $926.46 | $962.05 | +$35.58 | 59% 420-286 (706) |
FL Flaznorp | Goyangavg 53¢ | $149.53 | $152.07 | +$2.54 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
 VeryLucky888 | Goyangavg 53.5¢ | $307 | $65.33 | +$12.41 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Mobis Phoebusavg 47¢ | $6.27 | $6.73 | +$0.47 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
Invested
$2,919.03
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$129.16
Record
56%
23-18 (41)
Invested
$926.46
Value
$962.05
PnL
+$35.58
Record
59%
420-286 (706)
Invested
$149.53
Value
$152.07
PnL
+$2.54
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
VeryLucky888Invested
$307
Value
$65.33
PnL
+$12.41
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.73
PnL
+$0.47
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.