Mobis Phoebus vs. Goyang

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Goyang (60%) · Goyang at 59¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 17

Mobis Phoebus42¢Goyang58¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Goyang

Consensus Traders

Goyang 60%

Total Value

$265.11

Combined PnL

$8.77

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGoyang at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Goyang

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mobis Phoebus42%

Goyang59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Goyang3 traders

Total Value$219.45

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$9.63

Mobis Phoebus2 traders

Total Value$45.65

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$0.86

Goyang — 60%Mobis Phoebus — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Goyangavg 55¢	$135.26	$143.87	+$8.61	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Goyangavg 57.8¢	$71.29	$72.11	+$0.82	47% 147-166 (313)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 43.5¢	$90.87	$41.5	-$0.41	48% 207-227 (434)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.15	-$0.45	24% 204-633 (837)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Goyangavg 55¢	$3.27	$3.48	+$0.21	34% 161-313 (474)

Flaznorp

Goyang

Invested

$135.26

Value

$143.87

PnL

+$8.61

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

SnakeBall<$100

Goyang

Invested

$71.29

Value

$72.11

PnL

+$0.82

Record

47%

147-166 (313)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$90.87

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$0.41

Record

48%

207-227 (434)

VenusianCTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.45

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Goyang

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.21

Record

34%

161-313 (474)

Research grade

AvoidGoyang at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Goyang

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Goyang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.