LG Sakers vs. Seoul Knights: O/U 166.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.7K
$106.33
49.9¢ → 100¢
+100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI biying88888 | Overavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$117.6 | 36% 113-199 (312) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 47.9¢ | $897.09 | $748.37 | -$148.72 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 49.3¢ | $224.5 | $348.25 | +$171.75 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 49.7¢ | $5.18 | $10.38 | +$5.2 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $39.95 | $0.45 | -$39.5 | 28% 151-392 (543) |
Invested
$1,470
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$117.6
Record
36%
113-199 (312)
Invested
$897.09
Value
$748.37
PnL
-$148.72
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
VeryLucky888Invested
$224.5
Value
$348.25
PnL
+$171.75
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$5.2
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$39.95
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$39.5
Record
28%
151-392 (543)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.