Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold LG Sakers, while the market favors Seoul Knights (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
LG Sakers vs. Seoul Knights
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold LG Sakers (80%) · LG Sakers at 50¢ · $197 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
LG Sakers
5
LG Sakers 80%
$196.84
$11.62
45.1¢ → 49.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLG Sakers at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Seoul Knights 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on LG Sakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | LG Sakersavg 44.2¢ | $88.16 | $95.81 | +$7.65 | 50% 1640-1620 (3260) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | LG Sakersavg 46¢ | $89.66 | $93.56 | +$3.9 | 29% 332-810 (1142) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Seoul Knightsavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.68 | -$0.12 | 40% 248-366 (614) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | LG Sakersavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 29% 320-793 (1113) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | LG Sakersavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.4 | +$0.2 | 35% 280-514 (794) |
Invested
$88.16
Value
$95.81
PnL
+$7.65
Record
50%
1640-1620 (3260)
Invested
$89.66
Value
$93.56
PnL
+$3.9
Record
29%
332-810 (1142)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0.12
Record
40%
248-366 (614)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
320-793 (1113)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
35%
280-514 (794)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.