Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nanjing Monkey King, while the market favors Shanghai Sharks (61%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Shanghai Sharks (-30.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Nanjing Monkey King (67%) · Nanjing Monkey King at 39¢ · $29 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Nanjing Monkey King
3
Nanjing Monkey King 67%
$29.4
$18.39
Research grade
AvoidNanjing Monkey King at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Shanghai Sharks 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL claudesportsCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 16¢ | $2.57 | $20.01 | +$17.45 | 35% 349-650 (999) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Shanghai Sharksavg 47.6¢ | $5.9 | $7.56 | +$1.66 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 49¢ | $2.52 | $1.8 | -$0.72 | 36% 16052-28068 (44120) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.