Shanghai Sharks vs. Nanjing Monkey King

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Shanghai Sharks (33%) · Shanghai Sharks at 97¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

Shanghai Sharks97¢Nanjing Monkey King3¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shanghai Sharks

Consensus Traders

Shanghai Sharks 33%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$66.03

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 97.1¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidShanghai Sharks at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shanghai Sharks

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shanghai Sharks97%

Nanjing Monkey King3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shanghai Sharks2 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,806

Combined PnL+$65.74

Nanjing Monkey King4 traders

Total Value$45.17

Total Shares1,427

Combined PnL+$0.28

Shanghai Sharks — 33%Nanjing Monkey King — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Shanghai Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShanghai Sharks 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpShanghai Sharks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNanjing Monkey King 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNanjing Monkey King 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nanjing Monkey King 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Shanghai Sharksavg 96.1¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$65.71	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 3¢	$26.43	$28.64	+$2.2	47% 2571-2857 (5428)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 3.3¢	$9.9	$9	-$0.9	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
FR freeman123<$100	Shanghai Sharksavg 96.1¢	$6.74	$6.79	+$0.03	82% 552-125 (677)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 3.4¢	$6.12	$5.41	-$0.71	50% 24942-24626 (49568)
poshposhCTR<$100	Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 3.7¢	$2.42	$2.12	-$0.31	58% 10631-7605 (18236)

UpTheBlues

Shanghai Sharks

Invested

$9,415.17

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$65.71

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Nanjing Monkey King

Invested

$26.43

Value

$28.64

PnL

+$2.2

Record

47%

2571-2857 (5428)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nanjing Monkey King

Invested

$9.9

Value

PnL

-$0.9

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

freeman123<$100

Shanghai Sharks

Invested

$6.74

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

82%

552-125 (677)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nanjing Monkey King

Invested

$6.12

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$0.71

Record

50%

24942-24626 (49568)

poshposhCTR<$100

Nanjing Monkey King

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

10631-7605 (18236)

Research grade

AvoidShanghai Sharks at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Shanghai Sharks

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Shanghai Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShanghai Sharks 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpShanghai Sharks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNanjing Monkey King 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNanjing Monkey King 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nanjing Monkey King 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shanghai Sharks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.