Tofas vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 170.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 95¢ · $312 held · ended Nov 14

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$311.66

Combined PnL

$33.53

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 95¢

+82% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$150.66

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$38.91

Over2 traders

Total Value$25.51

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$5.38

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$177.37	$135.49	-$41.88	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$47.37	$76.37	+$29
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.2¢	$130	$59.12	-$70.88
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$55.77	$98.61	+$42.84	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$45.09	$47.62	+$2.53	43% 180-237 (417)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$19.38	$20.26	+$0.88	46% 487-575 (1062)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$11.51	$5.25	-$6.26	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 47.8¢	$52.78	$4.43	-$6.45	53% 1343-1170 (2513)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$177.37

Value

$135.49

PnL

-$41.88

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

Invested

$55.77

Value

$98.61

PnL

+$42.84

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$45.09

Value

$47.62

PnL

+$2.53

Record

43%

180-237 (417)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.38

Value

$20.26

PnL

+$0.88

Record

46%

487-575 (1062)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.51

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$6.26

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$52.78

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$6.45

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.