Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trabzonspor, while the market favors Tofas (81%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Tofas vs. Trabzonspor

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trabzonspor (86%) · Trabzonspor at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Tofas81¢Trabzonspor19¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trabzonspor

Consensus Traders

Trabzonspor 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$78.03

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 19.5¢

-52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Tofas 81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tofas81%

Trabzonspor20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trabzonspor6 traders

Total Value$500.63

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL+$77.68

Tofas1 trader

Total Value$35.26

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.35

Trabzonspor — 86%Tofas — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trabzonsporavg 45.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$104.93	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
└ Trabzonspor leg	Trabzonsporavg 45.7¢	$943.18	$774.21	-$168.97
└ Tofas leg	Tofasavg 54.1¢	$415.12	$479.16	+$64.04
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Tofasavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	52% 812-742 (1554)
└ Tofas leg	Tofasavg 50¢	$262.5	$325.5	+$63
└ Trabzonspor leg	Trabzonsporavg 50¢	$262.5	$199.5	-$63
alpheclabs2CTR	Trabzonsporavg 41.1¢	$190.79	$241.22	+$50.43	45% 281-340 (621)
poshposhARB<$100	Trabzonsporavg 44.9¢	$129.31	$125.39	-$3.91	48% 1095-1172 (2267)
└ Trabzonspor leg	Trabzonsporavg 44.9¢	$98.67	$95.55	-$3.12
└ Tofas leg	Tofasavg 58¢	$30.64	$29.84	-$0.79
38 38791873984189CTR	Trabzonsporavg 44.8¢	$133	$100.09	+$1.01	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Trabzonsporavg 37¢	$74	$83	+$9	53% 7046-6183 (13229)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Trabzonsporavg 38.2¢	$52.49	$57.2	+$15.95	45% 797-979 (1776)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Tofasavg 62.5¢	$34.91	$35.26	+$0.35	46% 483-572 (1055)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Trabzonsporavg 35¢	$15.22	$16.52	+$1.3	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Trabzonsporavg 51.8¢	$2.61	$2.6	-$0.01	48% 2066-2225 (4291)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$1,358.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$104.93

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Both legs:

Trabzonspor$943.1845.7¢-$168.97

Tofas$415.1254.1¢+$64.04

NotJumpARB<$100

Tofas

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

Both legs:

Tofas$262.550¢+$63

Trabzonspor$262.550¢-$63

alpheclabs2CTR

Trabzonspor

Invested

$190.79

Value

$241.22

PnL

+$50.43

Record

45%

281-340 (621)

poshposhARB<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$129.31

Value

$125.39

PnL

-$3.91

Record

48%

1095-1172 (2267)

Both legs:

Trabzonspor$98.6744.9¢-$3.12

Tofas$30.6458¢-$0.79

38791873984189CTR

Trabzonspor

Invested

$133

Value

$100.09

PnL

+$1.01

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$74

Value

$83

PnL

+$9

Record

53%

7046-6183 (13229)

lryyyCTR<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$52.49

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$15.95

Record

45%

797-979 (1776)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Tofas

Invested

$34.91

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$0.35

Record

46%

483-572 (1055)

suntoriCTR<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$15.22

Value

$16.52

PnL

+$1.3

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Tofas 81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trabzonspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.