Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fraport Skyliners vs. Gladiators Trier: O/U 178.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.5K
$205.32
42.7¢ → 38¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mouzsynapseCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $803.71 | $934.55 | +$130.84 | 41% 160-234 (394) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $379.48 | $451.77 | +$72.28 | 56% 61-47 (108) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 42.7¢ | $64 | $41.67 | +$4.07 | 53% 1889-1647 (3536) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $33.29 | $32.88 | -$0.4 | 49% 4635-4903 (9538) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $29.63 | $28.16 | -$1.48 | 46% 3227-3762 (6989) |
Invested
$803.71
Value
$934.55
PnL
+$130.84
Record
41%
160-234 (394)
Invested
$379.48
Value
$451.77
PnL
+$72.28
Record
56%
61-47 (108)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$64
Value
$41.67
PnL
+$4.07
Record
53%
1889-1647 (3536)
Invested
$33.29
Value
$32.88
PnL
-$0.4
Record
49%
4635-4903 (9538)
Invested
$29.63
Value
$28.16
PnL
-$1.48
Record
46%
3227-3762 (6989)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.