Fraport Skyliners vs. Gladiators Trier

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Gladiators Trier (57%) · Gladiators Trier at 56¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 22

Fraport Skyliners44¢Gladiators Trier56¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Gladiators Trier

Consensus Traders

Gladiators Trier 57%

Total Value

$345.22

Combined PnL

-$10.19

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 56¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGladiators Trier at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gladiators Trier

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Fraport Skyliners44%

Gladiators Trier56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gladiators Trier4 traders

Total Value$219.28

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$23.76

Fraport Skyliners3 traders

Total Value$125.94

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$13.57

Gladiators Trier — 57%Fraport Skyliners — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Gladiators Trieravg 53¢	$103.71	$105.67	+$1.96	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Fraport Skylinersavg 32.9¢	$89.73	$99.51	+$9.78	49% 4635-4903 (9538)
OM omnibus-076daa	Gladiators Trieravg 70¢	$108.28	$84.3	-$23.98	46% 630-737 (1367)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Fraport Skylinersavg 30¢	$20.79	$24.61	+$3.81	53% 1889-1647 (3536)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Gladiators Trieravg 60.8¢	$22.23	$20.28	-$1.95	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
tradecraft<$100	Gladiators Trieravg 63¢	$8.82	$9.03	+$0.21	34% 465-896 (1361)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Fraport Skylinersavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.83	-$0.03	48% 2522-2734 (5256)

SnakeBall

Gladiators Trier

Invested

$103.71

Value

$105.67

PnL

+$1.96

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Fraport Skyliners

Invested

$89.73

Value

$99.51

PnL

+$9.78

Record

49%

4635-4903 (9538)

omnibus-076daa

Gladiators Trier

Invested

$108.28

Value

$84.3

PnL

-$23.98

Record

46%

630-737 (1367)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Fraport Skyliners

Invested

$20.79

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$3.81

Record

53%

1889-1647 (3536)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Gladiators Trier

Invested

$22.23

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$1.95

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

tradecraft<$100

Gladiators Trier

Invested

$8.82

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0.21

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Fraport Skyliners

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Research grade

AvoidGladiators Trier at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gladiators Trier

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gladiators Trier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.