Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 65¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Down
7
Down 100%
$11.4K
-$362.9
66.1¢ → 64.5¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 66¢ | $10.0K | $9.7K | -$295.11 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
AL almach | Downavg 66.1¢ | $608.51 | $588.79 | -$19.72 | 55% 49280-40908 (90188) |
0X 0xDB5 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $468.35 | $443.68 | -$24.68 | 60% 2415-1641 (4056) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 64.6¢ | $273.77 | $271.06 | -$2.71 | 55% 51345-41856 (93201) |
BO bosona | Downavg 66.5¢ | $199.92 | $192.34 | -$7.58 | 55% 50696-41121 (91817) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 68¢ | $203.05 | $191.24 | -$11.8 | 55% 3200-2598 (5798) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $26.9 | $25.6 | -$1.3 | 58% 23180-16614 (39794) |
Invested
$10,025.48
Value
$9.7K
PnL
-$295.11
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
Invested
$608.51
Value
$588.79
PnL
-$19.72
Record
55%
49280-40908 (90188)
Invested
$468.35
Value
$443.68
PnL
-$24.68
Record
60%
2415-1641 (4056)
Invested
$273.77
Value
$271.06
PnL
-$2.71
Record
55%
51345-41856 (93201)
Invested
$199.92
Value
$192.34
PnL
-$7.58
Record
55%
50696-41121 (91817)
Invested
$203.05
Value
$191.24
PnL
-$11.8
Record
55%
3200-2598 (5798)
Invested
$26.9
Value
$25.6
PnL
-$1.3
Record
58%
23180-16614 (39794)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.